COMMENTARY 8/18/17

 

CORN

UP 1

A narrow range on a Fri.  Sep fut are now down 50 cents from their high in mid Jul.  Most producers feel the NASS yield is wrong and the market will figure that out in time.  Crop tours will begin soon, focusing more attention on depth of kernels.  The specs went from a neutral position to being short 34K contracts in the last week. Hold on!! The volatility continues.

 

BEANS

UP 5

Traded both sides until mid day when the GFS forecast caused the market to rally into the weekend as several tropical storms in the gulf are causing different outcomes in the weather prediction models. Bean basis is showing the signs of domestic meal buyers and exporters. Lower river levels here in the N, are making freight costs per bu increase and causing staging issues in the Delta and the Delta has been wetter than they’d like, so they can get started in harvest.  The Pro Farmer tour on Mon so expect firmness to start with next week. Many are scratching their heads from the last report and the next one isn’t until early mid Sep!

 

WHEAT

UP 2

Slightly higher for both Chic and KC while the MN market closed lower. Overall quiet. Will a big corn crop in the US SW compete in cattle rations?  Weather models are forecasting some frost to hit SE Australia, which encompasses about 15% of their production, but crop is young enough that it isn’t real threatening. Heavy rain continues to hamper Russia’s harvest, though yields look to be 18% bigger than last year.  Harvest progress is now 10% behind last yr.