COMMENTARY 8/18/16

Two more rounds of moisture impact the Midwest in the next two weeks.   The first is expected to bring ¼” to 1 1/2” accum for the SW Corn Belt with heavier amounts to the E. The second wave is expected to drop ½” to 1 ½” to both the E & W Corn Belt.  The Delta is expected to slowly dry out over the next several days.

St Louis river level DROPPING ~ at 14.1′ and forecast 12.0by 8/23.  

CORN

OLD ~ UP  2   NEW ~ 2

Pretty quiet with little new news as the market ties to swallow the thought of a giant crop.  Funds bought 7,000 contracts.  There was a 101,600 sale to Unknown for delivery in 16/17 announced today but Export Sales were paltry for Old Crop at 6.6 vs expectations of 10-18 mill bu.  New crop was 41 mill vs expectations of 31-43 with Mexico buying nearly 17 mill of that total.  The Pro Exporter Tour starts this Monday.  Last year they estimated our yield at 164.3, 4.1 bpa below the USDA final.  The  OH Country Journal is in the second day of their crop tour and continues to show disappointing yield results.  The Ohio yield could end up closer in the mid 140s vs the USDA’s 163 est. Argentine harvest is getting closer to wrapping up.  They are now thought to be 85% harvested vs 75.4% last week. More Argentine corn acres in the works according to the Grain Exchange, who expects planted hectacres to rise 25% from 3.6 to 4.5 mill.

 

Monday’s

US CONDITIONS:  74% G/E THIS WEEK,  74%  LAST WEEK, 69% LAST YEAR

IL CONDITIONS:  84% G/E THIS WEEK, 83% LAST WEEK

US DOUGH: 73% THIS WEEK,  53 % LAST WEEK, 65% LAST YEAR, and 60% AVG

IL DOUGH:  79% THIS WEEK,  60 % LAST WEEK,  79% LAST YEAR, and 77% AVG

US DENT: 21% THIS WEEK,  9 % LAST WEEK, 18% LAST YEAR, and 21% AVG

IL DENT:  25% THIS WEEK,  6 % LAST WEEK,  32% LAST YEAR, and 33 % AVG

BEANS     

DOWN 2

Weak to start but supported by Export Sales and a come back from great from good meal results.  Old crop Sales were just 6.5 mill bu vs expectations of 4-11.  New Crop was  58.7 mill vs expectations of 55-66.  Of those totals, China bought 12.4 Old and 25.5 of the New.  Meal sales were HUGE from a week ago at 121 Old crop vs 40-100 expected and New crop at 192 vs expectations of 50-125.  Mexico was a big buyer for both years and the Philippines accounted for nearly half of New crop.  The Buenos Aires Exchange est’s the Argentina crop at 56 MMT with harvest now complete. Even though harvest is done, farmers are est to have marketed less than HALF of the crop hoping for higher prices and/or protecting against currency changes.

 Monday’s

US CROP CONDITION: 72% G/E THIS WEEK,   72% LAST WEEK, and 63% LAST YEAR

IL CROP CONDITION: 80% G/E THIS WEEK, 79% LAST WEEK

US BLOOMING: 95% THIS WEEK, 91% LAST WEEK, 92 % LAST YEAR and 93% AVG

IL BLOOMING: 95%  THIS WEEK, 91 % LAST WEEK, 93 % LAST YEAR, and 95% AVG

US SETTING PODS: 80% THIS WEEK,  69 % LAST WEEK, 76% LAST YEAR and 75% AVG

IL SETTING PODS: 81%  THIS WEEK, 68 % LAST WEEK, 78 % LAST YEAR, and 79 % AVG

WHEAT          

UP 1

Looking for direction.  Wheat Export Sales were mid range at 18.0 vs expectations of 15-22 and 12.8 per week needed. Brazil was the leading buyer, taking 3.4 mill bu,  Taiwan took 2.4 mill,  and Mexico 2.1 mill bu.

 Monday’s

US SPRING WHEAT HARVESTED:  48% THIS WEEK, 30% LAST WEEK, 46 LAST YEAR, and 30% AVG

US WINTER WHEAT HARVESTED:  97% THIS WEEK, 94% LAST WEEK, 99% LAST YEAR, and 95% AVG

IL WINTER WHEAT HARVESTED:  100% THIS WEEK, 100% LAST WEEK, 100% LAST YEAR, and 100% AVG