COMMENTARY 8/10/18

CORN

DOWN 11

Today’s report had only a slightly negative effect and not to be confused with largely negative like we saw today in ysb’s.  Old crop carryout was left unchanged at 2.027.  18/19 Production was increased 356 mill from 14.230 to 14.586 bill.  Carryout was 1.684 bill vs a 1.636 expected and in a 1.426 to 1.849 range.  Last month’s est was 1.552 bill. Yield was increased at 178.4bpa vs expectations of 176.3 in  173.8 to 180 bu range.  July’s est was 174.  Both usage and exports were higher and the world supply was bigger at 155.4 MT vs expectations of 151.6.  It is ALWAYS good to have grain contracted at profitable levels.

BEANS              

DOWN 42

The USDA report took the spotlight away from all the tariff talk and it went right to BEAR-city…..and the media didn’t know it before anyone else did!  Old crop carryout was lowered 35 mill bu (which is supportive) from 465 to 430.  HOWEVER, 18/19 carryout was increased from 580 to a RECORD 785 mill!!  The avg guess was 638.  These changes were ramped up by and increase in yield from 48.5 to 51.6 and an avg guess of 49.6.  Production was increased 276 mill from 4.31 to 4.586

 

WHEAT

DOWN 17

Yet another “?” answered today as the report was rather neutral. The world wheat stocks did NOT shrink like expected.  World carry out WAS lowered, but only by 1.920 MMT from 260.88 last month to 2.5896 and compared to the avg guess of 256.42.  Here in the States, our wheat crop was basically unchanged.