COMMENTARY 7/9/18

Rain chances are in store for the N half of the Corn Belt and Plains within Thu through Sun with temps increasing as the week unfolds into the weekend.  Some 13% of our yc and 11% of our bean ground has had as much as 10” of accums in the last 30 days with biggest totals in IA and MN.

 CORN

DOWN 6

Moderately warm temps expected for the next two weeks, with some chances for rain.  funds sold 17k contracts today.  Export Inspections were in the upper range at 57 mill vs expectations of 35-63.  Big takers were Japan at 15 mill, S Korea at 11.5, and other Asia/Middle East at 6.3 mill.  We still need to continue to move around 55.2 per week.  Ratings were expected to drop 1 to 2 points today……and did but IL dropped 4%…yet STILL 20% ahead of normal and look at those impressive silking values compared to normal!  Looks like ideal GDD’s are paying off in a big way!  See Actuals below.  On Thursday, old crop stocks are thought to be 2.115 in a 2.058 to 2.200 range and New crop at 1.725 in a 1.455 to 2.022 range.  Production looks like a 14.304 bill bu with a 175.1 yield and compares to the USDA at 14.040 and a 174.0 bpa.

Crop Progress:

US YC CONDITIONS:  75% G/E, 76% LW, and 65% LY

IL YC CONDITIONS:    81% G/E,   85% LW,  63% LY

US SILKING:   37% TW,  17 % LW, 18% LY, and 18% AVG

IL SILKING:   76% TW,  40% LW, 30% LY, and 32% AVG

BEANS              

DOWN 22

Market feels like it was overdone to the upside last Fri and re-thinking the 18/19 carry out potential of lesser Chinese demand?  Eh, we’re just grabbing at straws.  There WAS a new sale announced today, of 132KMT to unknown for 18/19.  Today’s rumor has China to reimburse importers for the TOTAL amount of the 25% tariff IF the beans from the US are used to replenish the country’s state owned reserves. The quantity of reserves is yet another unknown. The USDA est their reserves to be around 19-20 MT. Another item suggests that China could buy Brazil beans, and/or US bean IF they were processed into meal in Brazil first, or US beans could come into Brazil for their domestic use, THEN China could buy their Brazil beans.  Are you seeing a pattern here in this logic?  How do you tell the diff between a US bean and a Brazil bean?  They NEED our beans and our Pres is calling their bluff (opinion of the author). This am’s Export Inspections in the middle of the range at 24 mill bu vs expectations of 15 – 29 mill bu.  China DID take 2.6 mill! – and Egypy was the BIG taker of 8 mill bu.  Like corn, bean ratings were expected to be one point lower this afternoon.  Thurs’s report has us expecting Production to be a 4.324 bill with a 48.7 yield and compares to the USDA at 4.280 and a 48.5 yield.  Old crop stocks at 512 in a 478-631 range.  New crop stocks at 498 in a range of 380-797.

 

 Crop Progress:

US YS CONDITIONS:  71% G/E, 71% LW, and 62% LY

IL YSB CONDITIONS:    72% G/E,   78% LW,  and 66% LY

US YSB BLOOMING:   47% TW,  27 % LW, 32 % LY, and 27% AVG

IL YSB BLOOMING:   64% TW,  44% LW, 29% LY, and 26% AVG

US YSB SETTING PODS:   11% TW,  na % LW, 6 % LY, and 4% AVG

IL YSB BLOOMING:   21% TW,  2% LW, 4% LY, and 3% AVG

 

 

 

WHEAT

DOWN 7

Russia continues to export aggressively and didn’t get any support today from the row crops.  Export Inspections were a little weak at 9.9 vs expectations of 11 – 18 mill bu and 18.8 needed per week.  New crop stocks, on Thurs are expected to be 985 in a range of 924-1.084 and compares to the USDA’s June of 946.  France’s soft wheat conditions were down 1 to 73%.  Conditions (ours) continue to impress.  See Actuals below.

 Crop Progress:

US WINTER HARVESTED:     63% TW, 51% LW, 65% LY, and 61% AVG

 

IL WINTER HARVESTED:     92% TW, 83% LW, 94% LY, and 84% AVG

SPRING WHEAT CONDITIONS:   80%G/E TW, 77% LW, and 35% LY