COMMENTARY 7/5/18

Drier and warmer than normal for the next two weeks, according to the forecasts, but a look at the radar indicates different.  Tomorrow a cool-off an then back to the heat again after the weekend.  Good thing we received plenty of rain recently to go WITH the heat!

 

 CORN

UNCHANGED

Stronger to start on drier weather but faded on tariff concerns.  There was a new sale of 137 KMT 18/19 S Korea!  Thursday’s Export Sales will be out a day late due to the holiday on Wed and is expected to be 20-31 mill with only 5 needed.  Informa has our crop at a 14.604 bill  with a 176.6 yield, vs the USDA at a 14.228 and 81.77 mill planted.  The first expensive Brazil ethanol vessel,  Cielo Di Salerno is expected to ship out July 15,  headed for CA. Brazil’s ethanol is trading at a large premium to that of the US ethanol thanks to the D5/D6 RIN differential, combined with lcfs – and D6 RINs traded higher once the announcement of the resignation of the EPA’s Pruitt was released.

 

BEANS              

 

DOWN 9

Fear of tariffs take their toll again today.  We are nearing the time when we find out which country has more stick-to-it-ness.  Like recently pointed out, China has a LOT to lose.  Our bet is on the US sticking to her guns.  Our US trade rep confirmed that tariffs on China will take place Fri night at midnight.   China too, has confirmed that their counter tariffs will commence immediately.  Another tid-bit on tariffs is that China’s Sino Grain (yes, state owned) MAY be exempt from the 25% tariff, IF they put the beans into reserve. If not, it MAY appear the unloader would be paying a +$1/bu premium above where they COULD have purchased  beans from Brazil.  Still LOTS of unknowns!  Hang on tight!   With our great growing conditions, this crop of ours  is likely to get bigger yet.  Using a 48.5 bpa yield and 88.9 mill acres, Informa’s est is 115 mill bu bigger than the USDA.

 

WHEAT

UP 14

Weather woes are taking their toll on thesize of our competitor’s crop!  Informa lowered the Canadiam a half a MMT, the EU was lowered 900 K, Russia’s was lowered 6 MMT to 67, and Ukraine/Kazakhstan both weaker by 1 MMT. All those drops together add up to almost a 5 MMT reduction from the last est. Germany is expected to be down almost 10% due to dryness as the winter crop being 15% smaller at 20.5 million.  A Reuters poll expects Black Sea wheat exports to drop 11% to 58.8 MT, with Russia still being the world’s biggest exporter at 35 MT. Ukraine is est at 16 mill vs 17 last year and Kazakhstan at 7.8 million tons. Russia, Ukraine, and Kazakhstan combined are expected to be 12.6% lower at 110.8 MT.