COMMENTARY 7/3/18

Happy Independence Day!!  We celebrate because it was on these days in 1776 that the US officially declared its independence, AWAY from Britain.  Today’s market closed early at 12:05pm.  Market is closed Wed for the holiday.  No overnight market Wed night until Thurs at 8:30 am.

 CORN

UP 5

The forecast is shaping up a little different with drier and warmer the next 10 days. Cordonnier is continuing with his 178 national yield est.  Would be expecting him to be increasing that here directly unless something big changes in our weather.  The International Grains Council has lowered their 18/19 world production by 3 MMT, due to growing concerns in the EU as well as Russia.

 

Monday’s Crop Progress:

US YC CONDITIONS:  76% G/E, 77% LW, and 68% LY

IL YC CONDITIONS:    85% G/E,   83% LW,  65% LY

US SILKING:   17% TW,  5 % LW, 9% LY, and 8% AVG

IL SILKING:   40% TW,  2% LW, 11% LY, and 11% AVG

BEANS              

DOWN 5

Time is ticking.  The proposed tariffs go into effect on Fri into Sat and of course there is more talk additional of bean cancellations by China, which is on Thurs am.   The trade wars ARE taking a toll on China’s finances.  Overnight, China’s central bank appears to have manually stepped in and supported the yuan which fell below an area of significant support. (China is CLAIMING that they are not supporting)  Weakness in the Yuan causes additional pressure on the Shanghai Index. (this is their equivalent to our US stock market)  Drops like this, caused by the trade war, highlights just HOW dangerous it can be to their economy the longer it lasts!  For reference, in 2017, China sold $505 bill in goods to the US.  The US only sold China $130 bill.  Until China is willing to deal with the intellectual prop issue Pres Trump spoke of recently, MANY items remain uncertain. HOW they choose to control their currency will tell us a bunch about their intentions.  Cordonnier’s US yield is still 51 bpa.  May census crush is 172.5 bu, 1.4 bu below the Bloomberg average guess. Bean oil stocks are 2.374 bill pounds, 94 mill below the avg guess.

 Crop Progress:

US YSB BLOOMING:   27% TW,  12 % LW, 17% LY, and 13% AVG

IL YSB BLOOMING:   44% TW,  23% LW, 14% LY, and 11% AVG

US YC CONDITIONS:  71% G/E, 73% LW, and 64% LY

IL YC CONDITIONS:    78% G/E,   78% LW,  and 70% LY

 

WHEAT

UP 10

Nothing has changed weather condition-wise and technical buying is evident.  They MUST have overdone it yest as Canada and Russia are still dry and now France is showing condition concerns as well.  Market continues to watch conditions in W Europe and the Black Sea.

 

 Crop Progress:

US WINTER WHEAT CONDITIONS:   37% G/E TW,  37% LW, and 48% LY

IL WINTER WHEAT CONDITIONS:    53% G/E TW,  53% LW, and 64% LY

US WINTER HARVESTED:     51% TW, 41% LW, 51% LY, and 49% AVG

IL WINTER HARVESTED:     83% TW, 66% LW, 88% LY, and 67% AVG

US SPRING WHEAT HEADED:   58% TW, 34% LW, 56% LY, and 48% AVG

SPRING WHEAT CONDITIONS:   77%G/E TW, 77% LW, and 37% LY