COMMENTARY 7/31/17

CORN

DOWN 3

Weaker all day, but off lows as rain and cooler temps are coming out of this week’s weather models. The board has shut off producer movement and basis is starting to pick up the slack.  It has a LONG way to go! Export Inspections, this am were right in line at38.9 mill bu vs expectations of 33 -41 and only 28.9 needed per week from here on out.  W Hemisphere and Japan were the biggest takers.  Ag Sec Perdue says that despite a lot of people’s fears that Mexico is likely to source corn from other counties, it is unlikely.  So far our sales to them are record large at 541 mill bu, an increase of 9%.  Our new crop book to Mexico is at 75 mill bu, a 50% increase.  This afternoon’s Conditions Report looks to be somewhat expected with G/E down 1% from last week.  Expectation was down 1-2%.  Some 18 states were less fortunate, showing declines:  TX, ND down 5%, IA DOWN 3%.  States showing a 1% increase were SD, MN, OH and KY.  Unchanged States were IL, WI, MI, and NE.

Today’s Crop Progress:

US YC SILKING:   85%TW,  67% LW, 89% LY, and 85% AVG

IL YC SILKING:   93% TW, 83% LW, 96% LY, and 94% AVG

US YC DOUGH:   23%TW,  8 % LW, 28% LY, and 25% AVG

IL YC DOUGH   36% TW, 7 % LW, 35% LY, and 39% AVG

US CONDITIONS:  61% G/E,  62% LW, and 76% LY a 1% DECREASE

IL CONDITIONS: 63% G/E, 63% LW  No CHANGE

BEANS

DOWN 6

Cooler temps and scattered showers tempered buying by the Funds.  It appears that the focus has left corn (early) and switched to beans. Crop Rating LOOK to be a surprise as we actually INCREASED 2 for the US and 8% for IL….compared to expecting a 1-2 % DECLINE.  Will see what the overnight has to say about those results!  Some Private’s crop estimates should come out this week ahead of the next WASDE report on 8/10. Export Inspections this am were 17.5 mill bu were dead on vs 13 -22 mill expected and 20.1 are needed per week  to reach the USDA’s goal.  Brazil farmer selling is still light, keeping nearby basis supported.

Crop Progress:

US YSB BLOOMING: 82% TW,  69% LW, 84% LY, and 80% AVG

IL YSB BLOOMING:    88% TW, 77% LW, 84% LY, and 83% AVG

US YSB SETTING PODS:   48%TW,  29% LW,  51% LY, and 45% AVG

IL YSB SETTING PODS:   50% TW,  33% LW, 48% LY, and 46% AVG

US CONDITIONS:  59% G/E,  57% LW, and 72% LY a 2% INCREASE!

IL CONDITIONS: 66% G/E, 59% LW a 7% INCREASE!

 

WHEAT

DOWN 6

More spillover pressure from the row crops and some technical selling.  Export Inspections exceeded expectations this am at 21.3 mill bu vs expectations of 14 -21 and 18 needed per week.  US exports are up 13% so far this year at 24 mill. Global wheat production concerns continue with additional Canadian conditions ratings decline.  Argentina continues to get rains delaying wheat their planting progress and some est a 200K hectares of wheat could switch over to beans. Australia received some light showers over the weekend but Aug is still expected to be drought-like. HRS crop conditions were down 2% G/E to 31% and harvest is similar to last year’s 9% complete.

Crop Progress:

SPRING WHEAT CONDITIONS:         31 G/E% TW, 33% LW, 68% LY   Another 2% DECREASE!

US SPRING WHEAT HARVESTED:    9% TW, na LW, 9% LY, and 9% AVG

US WINTER WHEAT HARVESTED:   88% TW, 84% LW, 88 LY, and 86% AVG

IL WINTER WHEAT HARVESTED:    100% TW, 100% LW, 99% LY, and 99% AVG