COMMENTARY 7/31/15

**SPECIAL THANKS TO ALL WHO WORKED TO GET JULY CONTRACTS FILLED!

CHECK THOSE CORN BINS!! ~ BLUE EYE MOLD IS STARTING TO SHOW UP! 

St Louis river level FALLING at +26.1 and forecast  to be 22.0 by  8/5  (Flood Stage is 30.0)

Seasonable temperatures through Mon followed by  5-7 days of even cooler temps, especially for the NE two thirds of the Corn Belt.  This should be conducive for storm development from Sun forward and dependent on  a large Canadian system. The August 1-9 period now has a slightly wetter forecast with expectations of ¾ to 1 ½” amounts for most of The Belt.

CORN

DOWN 2              (Down 30 cents for the week)

Traded both sides today and numerous yield estimates are edging up to the mid 160’s with our current (non-threatening) weather.  Planalytics has our US  yield at 166.7, up from 165.4 in mid July. Other estimates include Green Plains Ethanol at 165-166, RJO 165, Futures Int 167.5, The Trade is expecting this coming Monday’s corn ratings to hold steady at 70% G/E, 3 points below last year.  Mexico bought another 72 K MT of 15/16 corn.  In South America, the BA Exchange raised its estimate of the  Argentine crop 1 MMT to 26.0 with the USDA’s est at 25.0The next BIG report is out Aug 12th.

Nearby basis values are still inverted, meaning stiff penalties possible if you are late delivering contracts.  DON’T BE LATE!

Bloomberg Trader Bias:  Bullish 24% (15% LW), Bearish 52% (58% LW), Neutral 24% (27% LW)

LAST Monday’s Crop Progress:

US CONDITION: 70% G/E , 69% LW  75% LY   STATE OF IL CONDITION: 57% G/E 55% LW (UP 2% from LW)

US SILKING:   78% TW,  55% LW, 75% LY, and 77% AVG.  The State of IL SILKING:  89% TW, 75% LW, 92% LY, and 91% AVG.

US DOUGH:   14% TW,  na % LW, 15% LY, and 17% AVG.  The State of IL DOUGH:  32% TW, 17% LW, 24% LY, and 30% AVG.

 

BEANS     

DOWN 10      **Now using Nov (X) Futures!                             

China cancelled 200 K MT of previously purchased 15/16 beans.  That kept things on the soft side!  Trade ideas on Monday’s Crop Ratings are steady to up 1 from 62% G/E last week or 9 points below a year ago.  The weakness in the Brazillian Real has increased the incentive for producers to forward contract.  This SHOULD lead to more acreage planted this fall.

Nearby basis values are still inverted, meaning stiff penalties possible if you are late delivering contracts.  DON’T BE LATE!

Bloomberg Trader Bias:  Bullish 32% (16% LW), Bearish 36% (48% LW), Neutral 27% (32% LW)

LAST Monday’s Crop Progress:

US CONDITION: 62% G/E  and 62% LW  71% LY   STATE OF IL CONDITION: 49% G/E, 47% G/E LW( UP 2% from LW)

US BLOOMING:  71% TW, 56%LW, 74% LY, and 72% AVG.  The State of IL BLOOMING: 72% TW, 56LW, 81% LY, and 77% AVG.

US POD SETTING:  34% TW, 17%LW, 35% LY, and 31% AVG.  The State of IL EMERGED: 31% TW, 16%LW, 41% LY, and 34% AVG.

 

WHEAT          

UP 3                     (Down 24 cents for the week)

Weakness in dollar and a sale to Unknown suggests a possibility of an improving demand outlook, providing a slight lift.  French SRW harvest is 70% complete, up 10 points for the week and 5 ahead of a year ago.  Widespread rains moved across much of W Australia last night.  From  the Black Sea,  South Korea, Philippines, and Thailand are said to have bought nearly 3 MMT of FEED WHEAT for July-Dec shipment.

Bloomberg Trader Bias: Bullish 20% (12% LW), Bearish 44% (69% LW), Neutral 36% (19% LW)

LAST Monday’s Crop Progress:

Winter Wheat Harvested: 85% TW, 75% LW, 82% LY, 80% AVG.      The State of IL Harvested:  95% TW,91% LW, 99% LY, and 99% AVG.