COMMENTARY 7/30/15 **DON’T BE LATE W/JULY CONTRACTS!!**

**JULY BEANS ARE NOW A –> 40 <– PREM TO AUG!!!  CONTRACT & HAUL EM’ BY FRIDAY!!!

** DON’T BE LATE WITH JULY YC & YSB CONTRACTS!**

CHECK THOSE CORN BINS!! ~ BLUE EYE MOLD IS STARTING TO SHOW UP! 

St Louis river level FALLING at +26.6 and forecast  to be 22.7 by  8/4  (Flood Stage is 30.0)

Seasonable temperatures through Mon followed by  5-7 days of even cooler temps, especially for the NE two thirds of the Corn Belt.  This should be conducive for storm development from Sun forward and dependent on  a large Canadian system.  The outlook for August 2-9 is near normal rainfall.

CORN

UP 5

Export Sales were a hearty surprise at 14.4 vs  expectations of 8 – 16 mill bu. Of that, Japan bought 14.3.  New Crop Sales were 17.5 and exceeded the 6-16 mbu range. Some 11 millbu was purchased by Mexico and 2.4 went to Japan.   Old Crop Milo Sales rebounded to 4.2 to China and New Crop  totaled 4.3 to China and unknown.  Eggs Sets are up just slightly and Chicks Placed are now up 2% year to year.  Still non threatening weather for the growing crop.  The next BIG report is out Aug 12th.

Nearby basis values are still inverted, meaning stiff penalties possible if you are late delivering July contracts.  DON’T BE LATE!

Bloomberg Trader Bias:  Bullish 15% This Week (16% LW), Bearish 58% (48% LW), Neutral 27% (36% LW)

Monday’s Crop Progress:

US CONDITION: 70% G/E , 69% LW  75% LY   STATE OF IL CONDITION: 57% G/E 55% LW (UP 2% from LW)

US SILKING:   78% TW,  55% LW, 75% LY, and 77% AVG.  The State of IL SILKING:  89% TW, 75% LW, 92% LY, and 91% AVG.

US DOUGH:   14% TW,  na % LW, 15% LY, and 17% AVG.  The State of IL DOUGH:  32% TW, 17% LW, 24% LY, and 30% AVG.

 

BEANS     

OLD ~UP 7      NEW ~ UP 6

Stupendous Old Crop Export Sales of 15.3 vs expectations of only 4 – 7 mill bu.  China accounted for 11 mill bu AND it APPEARS some end of marketing year export business may be headed for China.   We also saw some decent New Crop interest with 33 mbu sold of which 13 went to China and 15 to Unknown.   Export Meal Sales were 71.5  vs expectations of 50 – 125 and only needed 13.7.   New Crop Meal Sales were  80.3 K and exceeded the 0 – 75 range due to buying by Mexico. Venezuela bought 40 Old Crop Meal and 55 Old Crop Bean Oil as well.  It is being said that some 15-20% of the 2016 Brazil crop is now forward sold  against < 5% a year ago. The weakness in the Brazillian Real has increased the incentive for producers to forward contract.  This SHOULD lead to more acreage planted this fall.  FAO says below average rainfall from this year’s El Nino is negatively impacting the yield potential of early planted beans in  Southeast Asia where bean demand has been increasing.  Pakistan’s imports are expected to double this year to 1 MMT accordingly with recent purchase coming out of South America.

Nearby basis values are still inverted, meaning stiff penalties possible if you are late delivering July contracts.  DON’T BE LATE!

Bloomberg Trader Bias:  Bullish 16% (12% LW), Bearish 48% (48% LW), Neutral 32% (36% LW)

Monday’s Crop Progress:

US CONDITION: 62% G/E  and 62% LW  71% LY   STATE OF IL CONDITION: 49% G/E, 47% G/E LW( UP 2% from LW)

US BLOOMING:  71% TW, 56%LW, 74% LY, and 72% AVG.  The State of IL BLOOMING: 72% TW, 56LW, 81% LY, and 77% AVG.

US POD SETTING:  34% TW, 17%LW, 35% LY, and 31% AVG.  The State of IL EMERGED: 31% TW, 16%LW, 41% LY, and 34% AVG.

 

WHEAT          

UNCHANGED

Good Export Sales but IGC raised its C/O estimate by 5 MMTSales of 25.7 mbu, exceeded expectations vs a trade range of 15-22 mill bu!  Mexico and Taiwan each bought 4,  Italy 3 million, and Nigeria bought 2.2. Day #2 of the U.S. Spring Wheat Crop Tour has the HRS yield pegged at 47.3 bpa, the 2nd highest since 1994,  and down slightly from yesterday’s 51.1 bu  average.  In the Black Sea,  South Korea, Philippines, and Thailand are said to have bought nearly 3 MMT of FEED WHEAT for July-Dec shipment.  Australia’s Meteorology Bureau is expecting a drier than normal Aug – Oct for the SE portions of the country.

Bloomberg Trader Bias:  Bullish 12% (12% LW), Bearish 69% (48% LW), Neutral 19% (40% LW)

Monday’s Crop Progress:

Winter Wheat Harvested: 85% TW, 75% LW, 82% LY, 80% AVG.      The State of IL Harvested:  95% TW,91% LW, 99% LY, and 99% AVG.