COMMENTARY 7/29/16

Warmer to hot as we get into mid next week.  Some shower possibilities are likely.

St Louis river level DROPPING ~ at 16.7′ and forecast 14.4 by 8/3.  

CORN

OLD ~ UP 3    NEW ~ UP 4

After bottoming out at near contract lows, it doesn’t take much to cause a bounce.  N Ohio still could use rain still.  Traditional hedge funds are still net short 46K contracts.  Privates will be out next week with what there est of the yields and then the report will be out 8/12.  The crop feels as if it is getting bigger and there is a big line of vessels waiting at the Gulf to load yc! Corn ratings are expected to be unchanged on Monday at 76% G/E and compares to 70% last year and the 5 yr ave at 58%.  Brazil’s Mato Grosso and Parana’s safrinha harvest is 70% complete with disappointing yields.  Don’t be surprised if they have yet another drop in their Production.

Bloomberg Trader Bias:  Bullish 24% TW ( 19% LW), Bearish 37% (31% LW), Neutral 40% (50% LW)

LAST Monday’s

US CONDITIONS:  76% G/E THIS WEEK,  76%  LAST WEEK, 70% LAST YEAR

IL CONDITIONS:  82% G/E THIS WEEK, 80% LAST WEEK

US SILKING: 79% THIS WEEK,  56 % LAST WEEK, 71% LAST YEAR, and 70% AVG

IL SILKING:  90% THIS WEEK,  77 % LAST WEEK,  85% LAST YEAR, and 86% AVG

US DOUGH: 13% THIS WEEK,  NA % LAST WEEK, 12% LAST YEAR, and 13% AVG

IL DOUGH:  18% THIS WEEK,  5 % LAST WEEK,  28% LAST YEAR, and 23% AVG

BEANS     

OLD ~ UP 29       NEW~ UP 25

Wow!  Higher on a lower US $, The DNC has taken its’ toll. August weather still is a big ??.  Export buying is hanging in there but is also another big ?? beyond harvest.  The USDA announced another sale of a cargo of old crop and one for new crop. Exporters believe another 6-10 new crop PNW cargoes may have been sold today.   Monday’s crop conditions are expected to be steady to down 1 at 71% G/E vs 63% LY and avg of 57%.

Bloomberg Trader Bias:  Bullish 47% TW (13% LW), Bearish 20% (60%LW), and Neutral 33% (27% LW)

LAST Monday’s

US CROP CONDITION: 71% G/E THIS WEEK,   71% LAST WEEK, and 62% LAST YEAR

IL CROP CONDITION: 77% G/E THIS WEEK, 76% LAST WEEK

US BLOOMING: 76% THIS WEEK, 60% LAST WEEK, 67% LAST YEAR and 71% AVG

IL BLOOMING: 76%  THIS WEEK, 60 % LAST WEEK, 67% LAST YEAR, and 71% AVG

US SETTING PODS: 35% THIS WEEK,  18 % LAST WEEK, 29% LAST YEAR and 26% AVG

IL SETTING PODS: 33%  THIS WEEK, 15 % LAST WEEK, 27% LAST YEAR, and 27% AVG

 

 WHEAT          

DOWN 3

The weak $ didn’t help today.  The ND spring wheat tour finished at 45.7 bpa vs 45.0.  Over the last 13 years,  the average difference has only been 0.2 bpa. Global markets continue to talk about French wheat quality and production ests and France having to import wheat cargo(s).

Bloomberg Trader Bias:  Bullish 37% TW (20% LW), Bearish 5% (47% LW), and Neutral 58% (33% LW)

LAST Monday’s

US WINTER WHEAT HARVESTED:  83% THIS WEEK, 76% LAST WEEK, 82% LAST YEAR, and 79% AVG

IL WINTER WHEAT HARVESTED:  99% THIS WEEK, 97% LAST WEEK, 94% LAST YEAR, and 97% AVG