COMMENTARY 7/29/15

**JULY BEANS ARE NOW A –> 60 <– PREM TO AUG!!!  CONTRACT & HAUL EM’ BY FRIDAY!!!

**~ DON’T BE LATE WITH JULY YC & YSB CONTRACTS!**

CHECK THOSE CORN BINS!! ~ BLUE EYE MOLD IS STARTING TO SHOW UP! 

St Louis river level FALLING at +26.6 and forecast  to be 24.1 by  8/3  (Flood Stage is 30.0)

The Central US will be divided until early next week by heat to the SW and cooler temps in the NE.  These are typically ideal growing conditions for early August.  The SE Corn Belt may continue to dry out, but late July was wet.  Slight rain chances exist Aug. 1-10.  Accum of 0.50” to 1.50” is likely in the Western Belt.

CORN

DOWN 7

BIG FUND LIQUIDATION!  The current weather outlook is now thought to be favorable to finishing out the crop! Maybe the early damage due to excessive rains was overstated?  Thursday’s Export Sales Report is expected to show a diminished buying trend of 8 – 16 mill bu.  On today’s EIA Report, ethanol production eased 8 K per day to 965 and compares to 954 a year ago. Nation-wide inventories rose 89 K barrels to 19.65 million, but year to year surplus fell from 1.6 mbl last week to 1.06.

Rabobank estimates the US yield est at163 bpa and increased their price forecast 20-30 cents to $3.90/bu.  Does this mean you should get some $4.00 corn on the books?  Allendale is dismissing excessive summer rains, placing their yield est at 165.0.   Morgan Stanley’s yield est sits at 164.6 with a potential of 166.7bpa.

Nearby basis values are still inverted, meaning stiff penalties possible if you are late delivering July contracts.  DON’T BE LATE!

Bloomberg Trader Bias:  Bullish 15% This Week (16% LW), Bearish 58% (48% LW), Neutral 27% (36% LW)

 

Monday’s Crop Progress:

US CONDITION: 70% G/E , 69% LW  75% LY   STATE OF IL CONDITION: 57% G/E 55% LW (UP 2% from LW)

US SILKING:   78% TW,  55% LW, 75% LY, and 77% AVG.  The State of IL SILKING:  89% TW, 75% LW, 92% LY, and 91% AVG.

US DOUGH:   14% TW,  na % LW, 15% LY, and 17% AVG.  The State of IL DOUGH:  32% TW, 17% LW, 24% LY, and 30% AVG.

 

BEANS     

OLD ~UP 8      NEW ~ DOWN 2

Demand for Meal lead the complex higher(after all, THAT’S why we produce beans….for the MEAL).  Thursday’s Export Sales Report is expected to show a measly 4 – 7 mill bu.  The Trade is, however, expecting to see handsome export values in the meal at 50 – 125 with only 20.1 needed per week.

Bloomberg Trader Bias:  Bullish 16% (12% LW), Bearish 48% (48% LW), Neutral 32% (36% LW)

Nearby basis values are still inverted, meaning stiff penalties possible if you are late delivering July contracts.  DON’T BE LATE!

Monday’s Crop Progress:

US CONDITION: 62% G/E  and 62% LW  71% LY   STATE OF IL CONDITION: 49% G/E, 47% G/E LW( UP 2% from LW)

US BLOOMING:  71% TW, 56%LW, 74% LY, and 72% AVG.  The State of IL BLOOMING: 72% TW, 56LW, 81% LY, and 77% AVG.

US POD SETTING:  34% TW, 17%LW, 35% LY, and 31% AVG.  The State of IL EMERGED: 31% TW, 16%LW, 41% LY, and 34% AVG.

 

WHEAT          

DOWN 14

Newswires today suggest that the firmer dollar was weighing on futures.  Just a .08% change in the Dollar’s Index gain translates into ½ cent higher price of wheat.    The first day of the Annual US Spring Wheat Crop Tour showing the HARD RED SPRING wheat yields at an average of 51.1bushels per acre, ranging anywhere from 19.6 – 78.4 bu/ac. The average was thought to the biggest one day average in 21 years!!  Thursday’s Export Sales are expected to be 15 – 22 mill bu for the week. 

Bloomberg Trader Bias:  Bullish 12% (12% LW), Bearish 69% (48% LW), Neutral 19% (40% LW)

Monday’s Crop Progress:

Winter Wheat Harvested: 85% TW, 75% LW, 82% LY, 80% AVG.      The State of IL Harvested:  95% TW,91% LW, 99% LY, and 99% AVG.