COMMENTARY 7/28/17

Another good soaking, unexpected rain las evening for a big portion of our area.  Even the dry spots got a GOOD drink – and it’s a good thing!  Mainly dry, cool weather dominates the Corn Belt for the next 7 to 10 days.  Temperatures should be more normal across the Plains where a few showers could pop up and the SW is the only region expecting heavy accums.  Despite the recent rains, a THIRD our corn Belt is experiencing drought.

 

CORN

UNCHANGED

Expect ratings to decline another 1-2 points on Mon.  Argentine harvest is 63% complete and the BA Exchange still maintains 39 MMT for production.

Bloomberg Trader Bias:   38% Bullish (39% LW), 31% Bearish (5% LW), and 31% Neutral (56% LW)

Last week’s:

US CONDITIONS:  62% G/E,  64% LW, and 76% LY

IL CONDITIONS: 63% G/E, 62% LW 

BEANS

UP 6

Dryness concern linger (but what about the pollinating corn??!) Crop Ratings ought to be 1-2 lower on Mon afternoon.  In SA, so far this year the Ukraine has exported 2.8 MMT.  That is 14% higher than last year.

Bloomberg Trader Bias:  38% Bullish (44% LW), 31% Bearish (11% LW), 31% Neutral (44% LW)

US CONDITIONS:  57% G/E,  61% LW, and 71% LY

IL CONDITIONS: 59% G/E, 67% LW

 

WHEAT

UP 1

Strength came early from reduced spring wheat yields and thoughts over how many abandoned acres are likely.  ND’s HRS yield average looks like 38.1 bpa this year, down from 45.7 last year.  The USDA’s est back in July was 38.0 bpa.  In SA, Argentina’s wheat crop is 92% planted and their acreage is still est at 5.4 million hectares.  Deral Brazil’s Parana crop estimate from 3.07 MMT,  to 2.82 due to early frost damage.

Bloomberg Trader Bias:  28% Bullish (18% LW), 33% Bearish (29% LW), and 40% Neutral (53% LW)

 

SPRING WHEAT CONDITIONS:    33 G/E% TW, 34% LW, 68% LY