COMMENTARY 7/28/16

Mighty seasonable, cool weather as we work into the weekend, then a few days of hot for early next week, followed by normal temps.  Widespread rains are expected for the next 10 days.  The GFS forecast is likely to be warmer and possibly wetter later today for beyond 8/5.

St Louis river level DROPPING ~ at 17.8′ and forecast 15.5 by 8/1.  

CORN

OLD ~ DOWN 4    NEW ~ DOWN 4

The USDA may add 2 bpa to its August yield estimate (Out Aug 12) despite talk of tip back and poor kernel fill.  Thursday’s Export Sales were mid range at 17.3 vs expectations of 12 – 20 mill bu and New Crop at 18.8 vs expectations of 18 – 26 mill bu.  US stocks, according to Rabobank, could rise as high as 2.3 BILLion bu and tuck under $3.00 fututures for Dec.

Bloomberg Trader Bias:  Bullish 24% TW ( 19% LW), Bearish 37% (31% LW), Neutral 40% (50% LW)

LAST Monday’s

US CONDITIONS:  76% G/E THIS WEEK,  76%  LAST WEEK, 70% LAST YEAR

IL CONDITIONS:  82% G/E THIS WEEK, 80% LAST WEEK

US SILKING: 79% THIS WEEK,  56 % LAST WEEK, 71% LAST YEAR, and 70% AVG

IL SILKING:  90% THIS WEEK,  77 % LAST WEEK,  85% LAST YEAR, and 86% AVG

US DOUGH: 13% THIS WEEK,  NA % LAST WEEK, 12% LAST YEAR, and 13% AVG

IL DOUGH:  18% THIS WEEK,  5 % LAST WEEK,  28% LAST YEAR, and 23% AVG

BEANS     

OLD ~ DOWN 7       NEW~ DOWN 7

Higher early but lost its energy due to non threatening weather.  Export Sales were disappointing at negative -100,000bu vs expectations of 9 – 17 mill bu for the week.  New Crop was 24.9 in a 22-29 mill bu range.  The USDA did follow yesterday’s sales announcement with yet another 65 K sold for 15/16 delivery to Unknown and 66 K to China. There were also 263 K sold to Unknown for 16/17 and 63 K to China for 16/17.  Meal Sales were in line with trade ideas at 79k for Old Crop vs 50 – 200 and New Crop at 75 vs 25 – 100.  China could import a record amount of pork this year as supply levels have dropped 5% and possibly could increase as much as 30% according to some.

Bloomberg Trader Bias:  Bullish 47% TW (13% LW), Bearish 20% (60%LW), and Neutral 33% (27% LW)

LAST Monday’s

US CROP CONDITION: 71% G/E THIS WEEK,   71% LAST WEEK, and 62% LAST YEAR

IL CROP CONDITION: 77% G/E THIS WEEK, 76% LAST WEEK

US BLOOMING: 76% THIS WEEK, 60% LAST WEEK, 67% LAST YEAR and 71% AVG

IL BLOOMING: 76%  THIS WEEK, 60 % LAST WEEK, 67% LAST YEAR, and 71% AVG

US SETTING PODS: 35% THIS WEEK,  18 % LAST WEEK, 29% LAST YEAR and 26% AVG

IL SETTING PODS: 33%  THIS WEEK, 15 % LAST WEEK, 27% LAST YEAR, and 27% AVG

 

 WHEAT          

DOWN 4

The second day of the Spring wheat tour in the Dakota’s shows a yield avg of 46.9 vs 47.3 last year, but still above 45.7, the 5 yr avg.  Above-Average” rainfall is expected for N and E Australia for Aug through Oct and may create the right conditions for quality issues, est to be at 26.0 by ABARE,  16.1 by the National Australia Bank, and 26.7 by Rabobank.  A French consultant, expects EU soft wheat production to fall 17 MMT to 134 due to previous excess rain causing disease issues.

Bloomberg Trader Bias:  Bullish 37% TW (20% LW), Bearish 5% (47% LW), and Neutral 58% (33% LW)

LAST Monday’s

US WINTER WHEAT HARVESTED:  83% THIS WEEK, 76% LAST WEEK, 82% LAST YEAR, and 79% AVG

IL WINTER WHEAT HARVESTED:  99% THIS WEEK, 97% LAST WEEK, 94% LAST YEAR, and 97% AVG