COMMENTARY 7/28/15 **DON’T BE LATE W/JULY CONTRACTS!

**TIME TO HUSTLE!! ~ MARKETS ARE INVERTED ~ DON’T BE LATE WITH JULY YC & YSB CONTRACTS!**

CHECK THOSE CORN BINS!! ~ BLUE EYE MOLD IS STARTING TO SHOW UP! 

St Louis river level FALLING at +26.5 and forecast  to be 24.6 by  8/12  (Flood Stage is 30.0)

Very warm/hot weather thru Wed then seasonable temps, followed by a period of cool and dry.  This could potentially leaving a few areas in need of rain some 10 to 14 days out.

CORN

UP 2

Final acreage and some yield tweaking remains but overall, the market seems content with the way the crop is developing.  Our combined G/E corn ratings were up 1 yesterday to 70%, only 5 points below last year.  Some private’s estimates are as high as 167.5 bpa.  Commodity Weather Group estimates our yield at 163.7.   Cordonnier maintains that the US crop estimate is a 13.14 bbu crop with a 163.0 yield and neutral bias. New Crop demand needs to be stronger than it is currently. The EU crop monitor MARS lowered their average corn yield 7% to 6.71 MMT vs the USDA at 6.93.  Also, China is reported to soon sell additional corn from reserve stocks.

Rabobank estimates the US yield est at163 bpa and raises their price forecast 20-30 cents to approx. $3.90.  Does this mean you should get some $4.00 corn on the books?  Allendale is dismissing excessive summer rains, placing their yield est at 165.0.   Morgan Stanley’s yield est sits at 164.6 with a potential of 166.7bpa.

Bloomberg Trader Bias:  Bullish 15% This Week (16% LW), Bearish 58% (48% LW), Neutral 27% (36% LW)

Nearby basis values are still inverted, meaning stiff penalties possible if you are late delivering July contracts.  DON’T BE LATE!

Monday’s Crop Progress:

US CONDITION: 70% G/E , 69% LW  75% LY   STATE OF IL CONDITION: 57% G/E 55% LW (UP 2% from LW)

US SILKING:   78% TW,  55% LW, 75% LY, and 77% AVG.  The State of IL SILKING:  89% TW, 75% LW, 92% LY, and 91% AVG.

US DOUGH:   14% TW,  na % LW, 15% LY, and 17% AVG.  The State of IL DOUGH:  32% TW, 17% LW, 24% LY, and 30% AVG.

 

BEANS     

OLD ~UP 14      NEW ~ UP 11

It was the END of a 3 day slide!  Funds bought some 7,000 contracts or 35 mill bu!  Yesterday’s ratings didn’t improve like expected. Combined G/E ratings steady at 62% last week and 711% last year.  In south America, Brazil is aggressively shipping beans.  Their July pace should equate to 7.6-7.8 MMT, up 2 MMT from last year with June at 9.8 (6.9 LY).  Cordonnier estimates their crop steady at 3.58 bbu, 43.5 bpa, and 82.5%harvested.

Bloomberg Trader Bias:  Bullish 16% (12% LW), Bearish 48% (48% LW), Neutral 32% (36% LW)

Nearby basis values are still inverted, meaning stiff penalties possible if you are late delivering July contracts.  DON’T BE LATE!

Monday’s Crop Progress:

US CONDITION: 62% G/E  and 62% LW  71% LY   STATE OF IL CONDITION: 49% G/E, 47% G/E LW( UP 2% from LW)

US BLOOMING:  71% TW, 56%LW, 74% LY, and 72% AVG.  The State of IL BLOOMING: 72% TW, 56LW, 81% LY, and 77% AVG.

US POD SETTING:  34% TW, 17%LW, 35% LY, and 31% AVG.  The State of IL EMERGED: 31% TW, 16%LW, 41% LY, and 34% AVG.

 

WHEAT          

UP 8

Moderate Fund buying added a bounce from yesterday’s devastation, but export demand concerns still persist. Brazil is said to have reached agreement with Russia regarding wheat importation  and the SovEcon lowered its estimate of the Russian wheat crop 1 MMT to 56.0 due to dryness vs the USDA est at57.0.

Bloomberg Trader Bias:  Bullish 12% (12% LW), Bearish 69% (48% LW), Neutral 19% (40% LW)

Monday’s Crop Progress:

Winter Wheat Harvested: 85% TW, 75% LW, 82% LY, 80% AVG.      The State of IL Harvested:  95% TW,91% LW, 99% LY, and 99% AVG.