COMMENTARY 7/27/17

That last night was THE most widespread rain received last night of the season for the entire state!  Our local dry areas actually got good coverage!  Rains should continue to move to the SE as we get into tomorrow and then it’s time for cool, oh, and no rain for the next 7-10 days.  The Plains are expecting some scattered showers and who KNOWS what the weather models may suggest.

 

CORN

UP 2

Yield uncertainty, disappointing moisture for IA and MO and below normal rainfall next week, but cooler temps too. Funds were buyers of an estimated 5,000 contracts. Export Sales were a dismal 3.6 mill bu vs expectations of 8 -20 as SA picks up steam, causing pressure in the export world.

 

US CONDITIONS:  62% G/E,  64% LW, and 76% LY

IL CONDITIONS: 63% G/E, 62% LW 

BEANS

UP 6

Some rains were helpful but abnormally drier weather is expected the next 10 days.  We did have another sale of another 7 mill bu was announced.   No WONDER the basis has been so firm!  Thursday’s Export Sales were at the top end of the range at 11.1 mill bu vs expectations of 4 -11.  China accounted for 5.1 as well as did the Netherlands at 5.0.   New crop was a little light at 19.5 mill vs 11-37 expected.  (China took 7).  Meal sales were only 6.7k vs 0 – 100k expected and 74k per week still needed. The SA farmer remains a tighter holder of stocks while their currency is firmer.  Planalytics has lowered their expected yield est from 46.7 bpa, to 46.5 but, then again, their detrimental time isn’t for several more weeks.

US CONDITIONS:  57% G/E,  61% LW, and 71% LY

IL CONDITIONS: 59% G/E, 67% LW

 

WHEAT

UP 2

More low yields continue to be uncovered by the wheat tours.  Canada too is expected to stay dry into late summer and S Australia too is dry and late fall is expected to be above normal temps. The second day of Wheat Quality Council tour has the HRS yield averaging 35.8 bpa.  That’s down from 46.9 last year and the 5 year average of 46.6.  Planalytics maintains their est of the Spring Wheat yield at 39 bpa.  Western Canada is so dry they are calling their Durum wheat crop a disaster.  For a country whose wheat hasn’t been that attractive in the world market, our Export Sales today were hearty at 18.3 mill vs expectations of 13 – 20 mill bu.  We only need 13.9 per week to match up with the USDA’s est.

Yest’s Crop Progress:

SPRING WHEAT CONDITIONS:    33 G/E% TW, 34% LW, 68% LY