COMMENTARY 7/27/16

Mighty seasonable, cool weather as we work into the weekend, then a few days of hot for early next week, followed by normal temps.  Widespread rains are expected for the next 10 days.  The GFS forecast is likely to be warmer and possibly wetter later today for beyond 8/5.

St Louis river level DROPPING ~ at 17.8′ and forecast 15.5 by 8/1.  

CORN

OLD ~ UP 3    NEW ~ UP 3

Short covering and more export business surfaces.  The USDA announced that exporters sold 74 K MT of 15/16 corn to Unknown along with 174 K MT for 16/17 deliv.  Thursday’s Export Sales are thought to range between 12 – 20 mill bu for the week.  Nearby US export business IS still decent.  Globally, US corn prices are a significant discount to Argentina and even with the Ukraine and Black Sea corn now through Oct/Nov.   At the same time, feed wheat is a 40 cent/bu discount to US corn. Black Sea weather is causing some concern for the next 10 days as parts of E Ukraine and Russia may have issues with regards to pollination, although extended forecasts don’t look threatening.

 

Monday’s

US CONDITIONS:  76% G/E THIS WEEK,  76%  LAST WEEK, 70% LAST YEAR

IL CONDITIONS:  82% G/E THIS WEEK, 80% LAST WEEK

US SILKING: 79% THIS WEEK,  56 % LAST WEEK, 71% LAST YEAR, and 70% AVG

IL SILKING:  90% THIS WEEK,  77 % LAST WEEK,  85% LAST YEAR, and 86% AVG

US DOUGH: 13% THIS WEEK,  NA % LAST WEEK, 12% LAST YEAR, and 13% AVG

IL DOUGH:  18% THIS WEEK,  5 % LAST WEEK,  28% LAST YEAR, and 23% AVG

BEANS     

OLD ~ UP 17       NEW~ UP 12

Some weather models (not all) are showing the possibility of turning dry in the foreshadowing 6 – 15 days out.  Beans still need more development before they are “made”. China bought US beans today, a 65 K MT sale for 15/16 delivery and 66 K MT for 16/17.  Tomorrow’s Export Sales are expected to be 9 – 17 mill bu.

Monday’s

US CROP CONDITION: 71% G/E THIS WEEK,   71% LAST WEEK, and 62% LAST YEAR

IL CROP CONDITION: 77% G/E THIS WEEK, 76% LAST WEEK

US BLOOMING: 76% THIS WEEK, 60% LAST WEEK, 67% LAST YEAR and 71% AVG

IL BLOOMING: 76%  THIS WEEK, 60 % LAST WEEK, 67% LAST YEAR, and 71% AVG

US SETTING PODS: 35% THIS WEEK,  18 % LAST WEEK, 29% LAST YEAR and 26% AVG

IL SETTING PODS: 33%  THIS WEEK, 15 % LAST WEEK, 27% LAST YEAR, and 27% AVG

 

 WHEAT          

UNCHANGED

No activity from the Funds today.  Results from the first day of the Spring Wheat Tour was disappointing.  Surveys are initially showing yields of 43.1 bpa vs 51.1 last year are well off the 5 yr avg of 51.1 bpa.   A Bloomberg source is reporting the EU’s wheat yield at a 20 year LOW of 5.5 MMT/ha, or 82 bpa, with French yields as low as 30 bpa.  France is currently importing a 55-60 K cargo of Romanian wheat as strong prices for hi-protein attracts foreign sellers.   AkrAgroConsult est the Ukraine’s harvest at 24.8 MMT, up from 23.3 previously and vs 27.3 last year.

Monday’s

US WINTER WHEAT HARVESTED:  83% THIS WEEK, 76% LAST WEEK, 82% LAST YEAR, and 79% AVG

IL WINTER WHEAT HARVESTED:  99% THIS WEEK, 97% LAST WEEK, 94% LAST YEAR, and 97% AVG