COMMENTARY 7/26/17

The meteorologists seem to be getting tired of speculating on the models.  Some decent showers started last night in NE and the dry parts of IA.  The Midwest is dry in MO and IL until a chance this eve into tomorrow.  Some extended models (the 11-15 day) are suggesting more chances of rain and cooler temps but the doubt we have been speaking of it STILL there.  This afternoon, the showers forecast for us locally don’t appear to be intensifying and the 6-10 day outlook is cool, yet still dry.

CORN

UP 4

Promising rains that started across NE, SD, and KS fell apart as the morning progressed.  Several more guesses on the national yield came in around 162 today which could create a 13.5 bill bu crop with a 1.7 bill bu carryout. Hot dry weather has tapped parts of the KS crop now expected to be reduced by some 40%. W KS’s dryland is est at 85% of its yield potential but w/out rain this week, it too could drop to 40% by next weekend.  Thurs’s Export Sales estimates are 8-20 mill bu for old crop and 8-16 for new crop. In SA, Brazil switching to heavy corn loadings from bean harvest and putting pressure on US cif values.

 

US CONDITIONS:  62% G/E,  64% LW, and 76% LY

IL CONDITIONS: 63% G/E, 62% LW 

BEANS

UP 7

Support today from the 200 day moving avg when one forecast model moved to drier/hotter. Look to the next GFS models tomorrow morning for further direction. The Brazil Real/US $ closed weaker at 3.14 and still back down to levels that the producer is hesitant to be a seller. How much capacity can the producer hold down in SA while corn harvest is still progressing? Chinese crush margins are down $5-6,  and US beans are still competitive with Brazil. China was rumored to have bought a US ysb vessel for Aug as they try and stay hand to mouth on usage.

 

US CONDITIONS:  57% G/E,  61% LW, and 71% LY

IL CONDITIONS: 59% G/E, 67% LW

 

WHEAT

UP 4

Higher as the results of the Wheat Quality Council were digested showing weaker yields. The later planted crop COULD get a late surge in production from some surprise precip, but only 30% of the total late planted spring wheat crop is not enough to overcome the inherent disaster. US wheat continues to struggle competitiveness in the world market.

Yest’s Crop Progress:

SPRING WHEAT CONDITIONS:    33 G/E% TW, 34% LW, 68% LY