COMMENTARY 7/26/16

Widespread coverage of above avg rain is forecast for most of the Midwest over the next 10 days with heavy rain across the Delta and the SE third of the Corn Belt into the weekend.  This should be followed by storm clusters in many areas for the FH of next week.  A few days of heat are expected early next week will be chased by cool.

St Louis river level DROPPING ~ at 18.7′ and forecast 15.8 by 7/31.  

CORN

OLD ~ DOWN 2    NEW ~ DOWN 2

Yesterday’s crop ratings held steady yesterday with more talk of RECORD yields!   The lack of heat in the extended forecast and good soil moisture is pushing trade estimates to the 170+ mark for the National Yield Forecast with a potential for a 14.9 bbu crop. The board also had spillover pressure from the wheat market. Brazil’s crop est continue to shrink and look for further shrinkage from the USDA’s last est of 70 MMT.  It seems like Brazil’s nearby cash market is verifying the lower bias as their basis continues to explode.  Back in the US, Crop Ratings were steady with IA, IN, and IL all up 1-2% with only  MI and OH declining 3-4, PA dropped 9 and TX 4 points.  The Trade was expecting a single point decline.

Monday’s

US CONDITIONS:  76% G/E THIS WEEK,  76%  LAST WEEK, 70% LAST YEAR

IL CONDITIONS:  82% G/E THIS WEEK, 80% LAST WEEK

US SILKING: 79% THIS WEEK,  56 % LAST WEEK, 71% LAST YEAR, and 70% AVG

IL SILKING:  90% THIS WEEK,  77 % LAST WEEK,  85% LAST YEAR, and 86% AVG

US DOUGH: 13% THIS WEEK,  NA % LAST WEEK, 12% LAST YEAR, and 13% AVG

IL DOUGH:  18% THIS WEEK,  5 % LAST WEEK,  28% LAST YEAR, and 23% AVG

BEANS     

OLD ~ UP 10       NEW~ UP 7

Looking good but still not through critical pod fill yet. Yesterday’s Crop Ratings held steady at 71%, 9 points above last year and 13 higher than the 5 yr avg.  Like yc, the Trade was expecting a one point decline.  Development-wise, 76% are in bloom, 10 points ahead of avg and Pod Setting was 35%, vs 26% average.

Monday’s

US CROP CONDITION: 71% G/E THIS WEEK,   71% LAST WEEK, and 62% LAST YEAR

IL CROP CONDITION: 77% G/E THIS WEEK, 76% LAST WEEK

US BLOOMING: 76% THIS WEEK, 60% LAST WEEK, 67% LAST YEAR and 71% AVG

IL BLOOMING: 76%  THIS WEEK, 60 % LAST WEEK, 67% LAST YEAR, and 71% AVG

US SETTING PODS: 35% THIS WEEK,  18 % LAST WEEK, 29% LAST YEAR and 26% AVG

IL SETTING PODS: 33%  THIS WEEK, 15 % LAST WEEK, 27% LAST YEAR, and 27% AVG

 

 WHEAT          

DOWN 14

Weaker with the EU.   Funds were estimated sellers of 6k contracts.  World and Domestic trade  was quiet.  HRW protein levels last week were at 11.2%, down from 12.3% a year ago.

Monday’s

US WINTER WHEAT HARVESTED:  83% THIS WEEK, 76% LAST WEEK, 82% LAST YEAR, and 79% AVG

IL WINTER WHEAT HARVESTED:  99% THIS WEEK, 97% LAST WEEK, 94% LAST YEAR, and 97% AVG