COMMENTARY 7/25/14

~MARKET CHOKES FEED GRADE WHEAT~

An area of significant rainfall developed overnight in the western Corn Belt, a benefit to many of the “dry” areas. The rain is expected to head east towards our area, but like this early afternoon, slowly diminish. Over the last 24 hours, rainfall of .5″ – 1″ was scattered from the northern Plains through the northwest third of the Corn Belt.

St Louis river levels EASING at +20.5 ft as of 7/23 and forecast 15.2 by 7/28.

CORN                      

UP 1

Cordonnier—maintains corn yield estimate at 167.0 with a slight upward bias heading into Aug; range: 160-173. Lanworth’s US Crop estimate Corn: 14.6 billion bushels w/ 172.8 bu/ac average. Today, Lanworth reports taht the corn crop is getting larger, raising the yield estimate from 172.1 to 172.8 bpa. There was more corn sales today; 269,000 MT were sold to Mexico, most for 2014/2015 delivery.

New Crop barge freight is higher with the continued buzz about the super-sized crop we have growing.  Weather forecast is just not threatening and one more good inch of rain will make the crop hard to hurt, that is, …….barring an early frost. NOTE:  This is NOT a good excuse to continue to hold old corn into new crop into declining and inverted market.

Nationwide Crop Rating  remained unchanged  at 76% G/E vs 76% LW and 63% LY.  The State of IL  remained unchanged at 81% G/E vs 81% LW.  US CORN SILKING was 56% This Week, 34%% LW, 39%LY and 55% AVG.  The State of IL Silking was 82% This Week, 62% LW, 58% LY, and 70% AVG.  (NEXT REPORT OUT MON 7/28)

 

BEANS    

OLD ~ UP 5      NEW~ DOWN 1

The old crop demand persists; weather weighs on new crop despite more sales.. Lanworth’s US Crop estimates: Soybeans: 3.67B bushels w/45.2 bu/ac average. Funds sold an estimated 5,000 contracts of beans yesterday which changed the New Crop futures. New crop blew the trade guesses out of the water, 90.1 vs 44-53 expected. China only sold 55,000 of 355,000 soybean up for sale; traders note record port stx of 7.3 MMT beans and 2.3 MMT SBM.China buys 360,000 SB for 2014/2015 and Mexico books 234,700 MT of 2014/2015 SBM. CWG reportedly sees potential bean yields of 44 to 48 with an average of 46.1 bpa. Concern begins to rise that China’s refusal to take U.S. DDGs not free of MIR 162 could hit U.S. soybean demand, but will require China to replace 2.7-2.8 MMT DDGs inputs with alternative protein source.

The (6/30) USDA REPORT WAS BEARISH FOR OLD & NEW CROP BEANS.   ACRES 84.84 vs 81.49 million.  (Avg guess was 82 million)  The report added 3.3 million more to planted acres and “found” some beans as the negative residual was 23 million more than the trade had been anticipating. Stocks were .405 vs. 992. Funds are still LONG (that means a large amount of selling would likely pressure the Board).

US CROP CONDITIONS improved 1% at 73 % G/E, 72% LW, and 64%LY. The State of IL was 77% G/E THIS WEEK and 76%LW.  US BLOOMING was 60% THIS WEEK, 41% LW, 243% LY, and 56% AVG.  BLOOMING for the State of IL was 69% THIS WEEK, 50% LW, 47% LY, and 55% AVG.      (NEXT REPORT OUT MON 7/21)

 

WHEAT          

UP 9

It’s all about quality – (or lack thereof). The quantity of feed grade wheat is increasing as a result with milling quality at a 30 euro premium to feed wheat. Export sales were 16.3 today vs 13-20 expected and 12.8/week needed ahead of the report; led by 6.0 SRW, 3.0 white, 3.5 HRS and 2.8 HRW. In the US, harvest continues to work its way North into WI, MI, & S. Ontario. Quality weighs on basis values as the market continues to access the damage and costs associated with vomitoxin AND LOW TEST WEIGHTS.   Test Weights below 56.0 are becoming harder to find a market for.  Wheat mills, as well as River Terminals are rejecting lower quality loads for higher vomi (over 4.0, 5.0, and 6.0) and TW now below 55.0.  Higher discounts for lower Test Weights SHOULD BE EXPECTED in the immediate future. Vomi discounts are significant as the markets digest the effects of FEED GRADE quality wheat. 

Winter heat harvested is 75% This Week, 69% LW, 74% LY, and 75% AVG.  The STATE of IL is 95% harvested. This Week, 90% LW, 96% LY, and 97% AVG.  (NEXT REPORT OUT MON 7/21)

FOR QUALITY:  Keep the bin fans on, take moisture below 13.0 to help ensure that conditions inside the bin are not conducive for fungal growth.  If they are, vomitoxin levels CAN grow if the fungus is allowed to prosper.