COMMENTARY 7/24/17

This AINT gonna be boring! The market seems impressed with rain accum from the weekend….but it was NOT widespread and there are many areas still dry. We were impressed with the 108′ deg temp over the weekend, but the market seems not to care.  Cooler temps this week and models suggest another 1/2″ to 1″ is possible throughout the balance of this week. Most of the spring wheat areas remain dry.

 

CORN

DOWN 3

Weekend rains benefitted the N Belt and to the E. Market Overall the Corn Belt has received 25% LESS moist than normal.  This am’s Export Inspections were mid range of the 30-46 mill bu expectations with 30 mill needed per week.  Some 11 mill went to Japan, 9 to Mexico, the EU 2.8, and China 2.7 mill.  There was also a sale announce of 135KMT for 17/18 to unknown.  This afternoon’ sCrop Rating were expected to be 1-2 points lower due to all the heat from last week and the weekend and they WERE for the entire US, but IL actually went UP a percent.  Wait until you see what bean conditions did (when it is corn that is in its critical pollination phase).

Today’s Crop Progress:

US YC SILKING:   67%TW,  40% LW, 76% LY, and 69% AVG

IL YC SILKING:   83% TW, 63% LW, 88% LY, and 85% AVG

US YC DOUGH:   8%TW,  na % LW, 12% LY, and 13% AVG

IL YC DOUGH   7% TW, na % LW, 16% LY, and 22% AVG

US CONDITIONS:  62% G/E,  64% LW, and 76% LY a 2% DECREASE

IL CONDITIONS: 63% G/E, 62% LW  a 1% INCREASE??

BEANS

DOWN 12

A cooler, wetter forecast is expected to ease the stress on beans that aren’t even to their critical yield determining time (unlike that of corn).  This afternoon’s conditions look to say something contrary to what the board did today on that notion.  Ratings were expected to decline 1% or so……BUT….the US conditions dropped 4%….and IL DROPPED A WHOPPING 8%!!  Be sure to monitor this overnight as board activity could get interesting!!  Export Inspections were above expectations at 21.9 mill bu vs expectations of 7 – 18 mill.  The EU was the big customer taking 6 mill, China 5.3, and Egypt 3mill bu.

Crop Progress:

US YSB BLOOMING: 69% TW,  52% LW, 74% LY, and 67% AVG

IL YSB BLOOMING:    77% TW, 56% LW, 74% LY, and 71% AVG

US YSB SETTING PODS:   29%TW,  16% LW,  33% LY, and 27% AVG

IL YSB SETTING PODS:   33% TW,  17% LW, 30% LY, and 29% AVG

US CONDITIONS:  57% G/E,  61% LW, and 71% LY a 4% DECREASE!

IL CONDITIONS: 59% G/E, 67% LW an 8% DECREASE!

 

WHEAT

DOWN 10

Weaker despite the dry 15 day outlook for the dry wheat areas.  The Alberta crop dropped from 70% G/E to 64% due to overly dry conditions!Inspections were on the low side at 16.6 vs expectations of 15 -21 mill bu. In SA, some 30% of Parana was frosted last week with some estimating there could be up to a 60% loss and now this week conditions are drier than normal.  Crop Ratings speak for themselves for the Spring wheat!

Crop Progress:

SPRING WHEAT CONDITIONS:    33 G/E% TW, 34% LW, 68% LY   Another 1% DECREASE!

US WINTER WHEAT HARVESTED:   84% TW, 75% LW, 82 LY, and 80% AVG

IL WINTER WHEAT HARVESTED:    100% TW, 100% LW, 99% LY, and 97% AVG