COMMENTARY 7/23/14

~MARKET CHOKES FEED GRADE WHEAT~

The overnight brought a few showers around the Great Lakes as well as over the Dakotas and western Nebraska with normal temps.  Variable temps through the early weekend will be conducive to some storm development across the Belt but amounts should be light.  Unusually-cool weather  is expected next week with limited rain amounts. The below normal temps will dissipate, allowing a seasonably-mild (but not hot) pattern  developing August 3-7, with increasing potential for storms.  (1) 61% and 27% of U.S. soybean production areas are drier than average at the topsoil and subsoil levels but (2) despite recent drying, only 11% of soybean (12% of corn) production have received less than 2.00″ within 30 days.

St Louis river levels EASING at +20.5 ft today and forecast 15.2 by 7/28.

CORN                      

UP 2

Cordonnier—maintains corn yield estimate at 167.0 with a slight upward bias heading into Aug; range: 160-173. Lanworth’s US Crop estimate Corn: 14.6 billion bushels w/ 172.8 bu/ac average. The corn and soybean belt has been 3-6 degrees cooler than usual, causing it to rank #2 coolest of the last 120 years (surpassed by 2009).  U.S. corn exports projected to average 40mbu per week nearby.  FWIW:  The last time nearby corn futures ended the month closing below $3.75 was July, 2010.  Some analysts suggesting  $3.00-$3.25 December corn Futures by harvest.  Today, Dec Futures are $3.62.   Monday’s Export Inspections were slightly below the mid-point at 37.0 of the trade’s 33-43 range due to disappointing numbers to Mexico but huge to S Korea at 10.1.

New Crop barge freight is ratcheting higher with the continued buzz about the super-sized crop we have growing.  Weather forecast is just not threatening and one more good inch of rain will make the crop hard to hurt, that is, …….barring an early frost.  Nothing like that in the forecast at this time although the old timers say, “when you hear the first locust we are 6 weeks until frost”.  (Someone locally heard locusts around July 5th).  We’ll leave it up to you to do the math.  NOTE:  This is NOT a good excuse to continue to hold old corn into new crop into declining and inverted market.

Nationwide Crop Rating  remained unchanged  at 76% G/E vs 76% LW and 63% LY.  The State of IL  remained unchanged at 81% G/E vs 81% LW.  US CORN SILKING was 56% This Week, 34%% LW, 39%LY and 55% AVG.  The State of IL Silking was 82% This Week, 62% LW, 58% LY, and 70% AVG.  (NEXT REPORT OUT MON 7/28)

 

BEANS    

OLD ~ UP 17      NEW~ UP 18   

More bean demand surfacing and tight  old crop supplies still in doubt. Lanworth’s US Crop estimates: Soybeans: 3.67B bushels w/45.2 bu/ac average. Funds sold an estimated 5,000 contracts of beans today which can be seen in the New Crop.  Monday’s Export Inspection were 3.6, versus the trade’s expectations of 1.6 – 4.4; the usual customers were Mexico, Japan, and SE Asia.  Domestically and globally, the S&D’s are suspected bearish, unless something irreversible happens to the US crop in the next few weeks.  Crop Conditions today were expected to be unchanged…..see below.

The (6/30) USDA REPORT WAS BEARISH FOR OLD & NEW CROP BEANS.   ACRES 84.84 vs 81.49 million.  (Avg guess was 82 million)  The report added 3.3 million more to planted acres and “found” some beans as the negative residual was 23 million more than the trade had been anticipating. Stocks were .405 vs. 992Funds are still LONG (that means a large amount of selling would likely pressure the Board).

US CROP CONDITIONS improved 1% at 73 % G/E, 72% LW, and 64%LY. The State of IL was 77% G/E THIS WEEK and 76%LW.  US BLOOMING was 60% THIS WEEK, 41% LW, 243% LY, and 56% AVG.  BLOOMING for the State of IL was 69% THIS WEEK, 50% LW, 47% LY, and 55% AVG.      (NEXT REPORT OUT MON 7/21)

 

WHEAT          

UP 6

It’s all about quality – (or lack thereof).  The Australia Bureau of Meteorology reports month-to-date rainfall is below average across most eastern wheat areas.  More rain in the forecast for Germany and France this week, causing additional quality issues.  The quantity of feed grade wheat is increasing as a result with milling quality at a 30 euro premium to feed wheat.  Export Sales were 18.9 and surpassed expectations of 11-18 mbu range. Japan took 1.4 mbu.  Argentina is now 78% planted.  In the US, harvest continues to work its way North into WI, MI, & S. Ontario. Despite losing some acres this spring, overall quality seems to be pretty good so far.  Quality weighs on basis values as the market continues to access the damage and costs associated with vomitoxin AND LOW TEST WEIGHTS.   Test Weights below 56.0 are becoming harder to find a market for.  Wheat mills, as well as River Terminals are rejecting lower quality loads for higher vomi (over 4.0, 5.0, and 6.0) and TW now below 55.0.  Higher discounts for lower Test Weights SHOULD BE EXPECTED in the immediate future. Vomi discounts are significant as the markets digest the effects of FEED GRADE quality wheat. 

FOR QUALITY:  Keep the bin fans on, take moisture below 13.0 to help ensure that conditions inside the bin are not conducive for fungal growth.  If they are, vomitoxin levels CAN grow if the fungus is allowed to prosper.

Winter heat HARVESTED is 75% This Week, 69% LW, 74% LY, and 75% AVG.  The STATE of IL is 95% HARVESTED This Week, 90% LW, 96% LY, and 97% AVG.  (NEXT REPORT OUT MON 7/21)