COMMENTARY 7/24/14

~MARKET CHOKES FEED GRADE WHEAT~

A cool pattern with only a few showers will follow for the up-coming week. The below normal temperatures will fall back by next weekend,resulting in a seasonably, warm pattern with better thunder storm chances for August 4th- 10th.  62% of U.S. soybean production is drier than average at the topsoil level, up 35 points from two weeks ago but despite this, the proportion of soybeans rated “good and excellent” for this week is the highest since 1994.

St Louis river levels EASING at +20.5 ft today and forecast 15.2 by 7/28.

CORN                      

DOWN 2

Cordonnier—maintains corn yield estimate at 167.0 with a slight upward bias heading into Aug; range: 160-173. Lanworth’s US Crop estimate Corn: 14.6 billion bushels w/ 172.8 bu/ac average. The corn and soybean belt has been 3-6 degrees cooler than usual, causing it to rank #2 coolest of the last 120 years (surpassed by 2009). Export sales on old crop was light at 11.5; new crop was a stellar 45 million. China sold 420,000 MT of older U.S. corn at a government auction yesterday.

New Crop barge freight is higher with the continued buzz about the super-sized crop we have growing.  Weather forecast is just not threatening and one more good inch of rain will make the crop hard to hurt, that is, …….barring an early frost. NOTE:  This is NOT a good excuse to continue to hold old corn into new crop into declining and inverted market.

Nationwide Crop Rating  remained unchanged  at 76% G/E vs 76% LW and 63% LY.  The State of IL  remained unchanged at 81% G/E vs 81% LW.  US CORN SILKING was 56% This Week, 34%% LW, 39%LY and 55% AVG.  The State of IL Silking was 82% This Week, 62% LW, 58% LY, and 70% AVG.  (NEXT REPORT OUT MON 7/28)

 

BEANS    

OLD ~ UP 7      NEW~ UP 9

More bean demand surfacing and tight  old crop supplies still in doubt. Lanworth’s US Crop estimates: Soybeans: 3.67B bushels w/45.2 bu/ac average. Funds sold an estimated 5,000 contracts of beans yesterday which changed the New Crop futures. New crop blew the trade guesses out of the water, 90.1 vs 44-53 expected. China only sold 55,000 of 355,000 soybean up for sale; traders note record port stx of 7.3 MMT beans and 2.3 MMT SBM.

The (6/30) USDA REPORT WAS BEARISH FOR OLD & NEW CROP BEANS.   ACRES 84.84 vs 81.49 million.  (Avg guess was 82 million)  The report added 3.3 million more to planted acres and “found” some beans as the negative residual was 23 million more than the trade had been anticipating. Stocks were .405 vs. 992. Funds are still LONG (that means a large amount of selling would likely pressure the Board).

US CROP CONDITIONS improved 1% at 73 % G/E, 72% LW, and 64%LY. The State of IL was 77% G/E THIS WEEK and 76%LW.  US BLOOMING was 60% THIS WEEK, 41% LW, 243% LY, and 56% AVG.  BLOOMING for the State of IL was 69% THIS WEEK, 50% LW, 47% LY, and 55% AVG.      (NEXT REPORT OUT MON 7/21)

 

WHEAT          

DOWN 2

It’s all about quality – (or lack thereof). The quantity of feed grade wheat is increasing as a result with milling quality at a 30 euro premium to feed wheat. Export sales were 16.3 today vs 13-20 expected and 12.8/week needed ahead of the report; led by 6.0 SRW, 3.0 white, 3.5 HRS and 2.8 HRW. In the US, harvest continues to work its way North into WI, MI, & S. Ontario. Quality weighs on basis values as the market continues to access the damage and costs associated with vomitoxin AND LOW TEST WEIGHTS.   Test Weights below 56.0 are becoming harder to find a market for.  Wheat mills, as well as River Terminals are rejecting lower quality loads for higher vomi (over 4.0, 5.0, and 6.0) and TW now below 55.0.  Higher discounts for lower Test Weights SHOULD BE EXPECTED in the immediate future. Vomi discounts are significant as the markets digest the effects of FEED GRADE quality wheat. 

Winter heat harvested is 75% This Week, 69% LW, 74% LY, and 75% AVG.  The STATE of IL is 95% harvested. This Week, 90% LW, 96% LY, and 97% AVG.  (NEXT REPORT OUT MON 7/21)

FOR QUALITY:  Keep the bin fans on, take moisture below 13.0 to help ensure that conditions inside the bin are not conducive for fungal growth.  If they are, vomitoxin levels CAN grow if the fungus is allowed to prosper.