COMMENTARY 7/22/14

~MARKET CHOKES FEED GRADE WHEAT~

U.S. corn and soybean condition ratings are the highest since 1994 and the 3rd highest since records began in 1986, with July to rank among the 5 coolest in 120 years.  This could mean a cool August, but not necessarily rainfall.  Topsoil and subsoil dryness are increasing, but regardless of precip,  deep subsoil will still stay moist for weeks.  Temperatures fluctuate this week, then turn unseasonably cool, 7-12 degrees below normal for the 7/27-8/3 period. Scattered showers from ¼ to ½” amounts Tue/Wed from NE NE into MI and OH.  Scattered storms will move across the Belt through Sunday, with only limited amounts forecast for next week.  A more seasonable pattern will return August 4-8, bringing a few showers to the Belt as the system tracks north.

St Louis river levels EASING at +21.28 ft today and forecast 16.0 by 7/27.

CORN                      

DOWN 4

Cordonnier—maintains corn yield estimate at 167.0 with a slight upward bias heading into Aug; range: 160-173.  Monday’s Export Inspections were slightly below the mid-point at 37.0 of the trade’s 33-43 range due to disappointing numbers to Mexico but huge to S Korea at 10.1.  Some analysts suggesting  $3.00-$3.25 December corn Futures by harvest.  Today, Dec Futures are $3.60.

New Crop barge freight is ratcheting higher with the continued buzz about the super-sized crop we have growing.  Weather forecast is just not threatening and one more good inch of rain will make the crop hard to hurt, that is, …….barring an early frost.  Nothing like that in the forecast at this time although the old timers say, “when you hear the first locust we are 6 weeks until frost”.  (Someone locally heard locusts around July 5th).  We’ll leave it up to you to do the math.  NOTE:  This is NOT a good excuse to continue to hold old corn into new crop into declining and inverted market.

 

Nationwide Crop Rating  remained unchanged  at 76% G/E vs 76% LW and 63% LY.  The State of IL  remained unchanged at 81% G/E vs 81% LW.  US CORN SILKING was 56% This Week, 34%% LW, 39%LY and 55% AVG.  The State of IL Silking was 82% This Week, 62% LW, 58% LY, and 70% AVG.  (NEXT REPORT OUT MON 7/28)

 

BEANS    

OLD ~ UP 8      NEW~ DOWN 14    ~FUND SELLING NEW CROP

More bean demand surfacing and tight  old crop supplies still in doubt.  Funds sold an estimated 5,000 contracts of beans today which can be seen in the New Crop.  Monday’s Export Inspection were 3.6, versus the trade’s expectations of 1.6 – 4.4; the usual customers were Mexico, Japan, and SE Asia.  Domestically and globally, the S&D’s are suspected bearish, unless something irreversible happens to the US crop in the next few weeks.  Crop Conditions today were expected to be unchanged…..see below.

The (6/30) USDA REPORT WAS BEARISH FOR OLD & NEW CROP BEANS.   ACRES 84.84 vs 81.49 million.  (Avg guess was 82 million)  The report added 3.3 million more to planted acres and “found” some beans as the negative residual was 23 million more than the trade had been anticipating. Stocks were .405 vs. 992Funds are still LONG (that means a large amount of selling would likely pressure the Board).

US CROP CONDITIONS improved 1% at 73 % G/E, 72% LW, and 64%LY. The State of IL was 77% G/E THIS WEEK and 76%LW.  US BLOOMING was 60% THIS WEEK, 41% LW, 243% LY, and 56% AVG.  BLOOMING for the State of IL was 69% THIS WEEK, 50% LW, 47% LY, and 55% AVG.      (NEXT REPORT OUT MON 7/21)

 

WHEAT          

DOWN 5

More rain in the forecast for Germany and France this week, causing additional quality issues.  The quantity of feed grade wheat is increasing as a result with milling quality at a 30 euro premium to feed wheat.  Export Sales were 18.9 and surpassed expectations of 11-18 mbu range. Japan took 1.4 mbu.  Argentina is now 78% planted.  In the US, harvest continues to work its way North into WI, MI, & S. Ontario. Despite losing some acres this spring, overall quality seems to be pretty good so far.  Locally, Higher barge freight nearby weighs on basis values as the market continues to access the damage and costs associated with vomitoxin AND LOW TEST WEIGHTS.   BIG BASIS DROPS FRIAY – NEARLY 25 CENTS!!  Test Weights below 56.0 are becoming harder to find a market for.  Wheat mills, as well as River Terminals are rejecting lower quality loads for higher vomi (over 4.0, 5.0, and 6.0) and TW now below 55.0.  Higher discounts for lower Test Weights may be in our cards in the immediate near future. Vomi discounts are significant as the markets digest the effects of FEED GRADE quality wheat. 

FOR QUALITY:  Keep the bin fans on, take moisture below 13.0 to help ensure that conditions inside the bin are not conducive for fungal growth.  If they are, vomitoxin levels CAN grow if the fungus is allowed to prosper.

Winter heat HARVESTED is 75% This Week, 69% LW, 74% LY, and 75% AVG.  The STATE of IL is 95% HARVESTED This Week, 90% LW, 96% LY, and 97% AVG.  (NEXT REPORT OUT MON 7/21)