COMMENTARY 7/22/16

More widespread, heavy rain in Central/N IL, WI, and E Iowa overnight.  Temps remain hot through Sunday, then steadily diminish as several cool fronts pass next week, initiating more chances for rain.

St Louis river level RISING ~ at 13.5′ and forecast 17.5 by 7/27.  

CORN

OLD ~ UP 1    NEW ~ UP 1

Significant rains moved through the Corn Belt with temps moderating into next week.  AND….. the outlook for yields to be ABOVE trendline.  With another 1 ½” of rain forecast for next week, this will be the fifth wettest July in past ……121 years!  Wet Julys usually result in yields 5-15 bpa above trend.  We may be looking at a 169-179 bpa national average yield and a strapping 2.7 bbu carry-out.  Plant populations are very good-lookin’,  maybe highest on record?! Could we see cash corn under $3.00???

Monday afternoon’s Crop Ratings are expected to see G/E  1-2  lower.  Is that from too MUCH rain?  Also, the first est of corn dough will be out as well.  Last yr was approx 12% and 5 yr avg was 13%.  Next week, the USDA will begin conducting its survey for the next Production Report out for release on 8/12.  Argentina’s Ag Minister raised their corn Production est from 37.9 last month, up to 39.8 MMT. The BA Grain Exchange has Argentine corn harvest at 53% complete and behind last year’s 73%.

Bloomberg Trader Bias:  Bullish 19% TW (49% LW),  Bearish 31% (24% LW), Neutral 50% (27% LW)

LAST Monday’s

US CONDITIONS:  76% G/E THIS WEEK,  76%  LAST WEEK, 69% LAST YEAR

IL CONDITIONS:  80% G/E THIS WEEK, 76% LAST WEEK

US SILKING: 56% THIS WEEK,  32 % LAST WEEK, 47% LAST YEAR, and 46% AVG

IL SILKING:  77% THIS WEEK,  53 % LAST WEEK,  69% LAST YEAR, and 68% AVG

BEANS     

OLD ~ DOWN 26       NEW~ DOWN 24

Favorable growing weather and  now questionable China demand worries. A very similar yield analogy like above on beans would bring the national average to 46-48 bpa, vs the USDA at 47.7.  Argentine soybean crop was raised up 800 K to 58.8 MMT.  A Chinese sale of reserve bean stocks is 332 K MT out of 578 K offered.  The G/E Crop Ratings for Mon is thought to be 1-2 lower. 

Bloomberg Trader Bias:  Bullish, 13% (78% LW),  Bearish 60% (6% LW), Neutral 27% (16% LW)

LAST Monday’s

US CROP CONDITION: 71% G/E THIS WEEK,   71% LAST WEEK, and 62% LAST YEAR

IL CROP CONDITION: 76% G/E THIS WEEK, 74% LAST WEEK

US BLOOMING: 59% THIS WEEK, 40% LAST WEEK, 51% LAST YEAR and 49% AVG

IL BLOOMING: 60%  THIS WEEK, 39 % LAST WEEK, 49% LAST YEAR, and 54% AVG

US SETTING PODS: 18% THIS WEEK,  7 % LAST WEEK, 14% LAST YEAR and 13% AVG

IL SETTING PODS: 15%  THIS WEEK, 7 % LAST WEEK, 12% LAST YEAR, and 13% AVG

 

 WHEAT          

UP 7

French wheat conditions continue to erode, falling 7 to 42% Good/Very Good according to Agrimer.  Russia’s exports are forecast at 25.5 MMT by SoveEcon and matches the USDA’s July est, up ½ MMT from last year.  Bloomberg’s survey found Ukraine’s wheat shipments for 16/17 are likely to drop 23% to 13 MMT and vs the USDA’s est at 12.5.  Dry weather reduced fall sowing, leading to a 9% decline in planted acres.

Bloomberg Trader Bias: Bullish, 20% (42% LW), Bearish 47% (27% LW), Neutral 33% (30% LW)

LAST Monday’s

US WINTER WHEAT HARVESTED:  76% THIS WEEK, 66% LAST WEEK, 72% LAST YEAR, and 73% AVG

IL WINTER WHEAT HARVESTED:  97% THIS WEEK, 95% LAST WEEK, 89% LAST YEAR, and 94% AVG