COMMENTARY 7/2/18

Hot?  Yes.  Wet? Very much yes!  An upper level high should blanket the Central US for the next two weeks!  Bands of heat and showers are expected with a cool down this coming weekend.  Some 31% of yc and 26% of ysb acres have recv’d 8” in the last 30 days, specifically parts of IL, IA, MN, NE, and SD.  Just 8% of yc and 12% of ysb acres have been drier than normal in the same period of time.

 

 CORN

DOWN 12

Weekend rains put us in GREAT shape to deal with potentially hot temps in July. Futures dipping to life of contract lows was NOT expected this am. Today’s Export Inspections were HEARTY at 60.5 vs expectations of 35 – 63 mill bu and the USDA may possibly be 50 mill skimpy on their 2.3 bill bu forecast.  Monday’s crop ratings were thought to be one to two lower BUT they are still WAY better than last year!  Silking too, was WAY ahead of normal.  See actuals below.  In SA, harvest is moving rather slow in Brazil with less than 10% of the safrinha crop shelled and compares with 13% avg and 16% last year.

Crop Progress:

US YC CONDITIONS:  76% G/E, 77% LW, and 68% LY

IL YC CONDITIONS:    85% G/E,   83% LW,  65% LY

US SILKING:   17% TW,  5 % LW, 9% LY, and 8% AVG

IL SILKING:   40% TW,  2% LW, 11% LY, and 11% AVG

BEANS              

DOWN 10

Strong exports helped us bounce off of today’s lows but tariff/trade worries are still a lump in the market’s gizzard.   Export Inspections, like yc were big at 31.2 vs expectations of 15-29 and just 100 K went to China. Great amounts went to the EU, SE Asia, Egypt, Middle East, and Mexico.  We still need 27 – 32 per week.  For the next NASS May Crush Report the trade is expecting crush to increase 2.2 mill to 173.8 with the average up 15.85 mill from last year.  Ratings were thought to be 1-2 points lower and wer, BUT, like in yc, WAY ahead of normal.  See actuals below!

 Crop Progress:

US YSB BLOOMING:   27% TW,  12 % LW, 17% LY, and 13% AVG

IL YSB BLOOMING:   44% TW,  23% LW, 14% LY, and 11% AVG

US YC CONDITIONS:  71% G/E, 73% LW, and 64% LY

IL YC CONDITIONS:    78% G/E,   78% LW,  and 70% LY

 

WHEAT

DOWN 21

Who angered the Funds today anyway?  Export Inspections were a little light compared to what we’ve seen the last several weeks at 11.9 vs expectations of 11-18 and 18.7 needed per week.  Winter wheat was expected to be one lower at 36% but actually INCREASED.  Spring wheat was expected to drop two and was unchanged. Quality issues are abounding for those poor pilgrims who didn’t get their wheat cut in a timely fashion.  The onslaught of rain we have been experiencing is really taking its toll on quality.

 Crop Progress:

US WINTER WHEAT CONDITIONS:   37% G/E TW,  37% LW, and 48% LY

IL WINTER WHEAT CONDITIONS:    53% G/E TW,  53% LW, and 64% LY

US WINTER HARVESTED:     51% TW, 41% LW, 51% LY, and 49% AVG

IL WINTER HARVESTED:     83% TW, 66% LW, 88% LY, and 67% AVG

US SPRING WHEAT HEADED:   58% TW, 34% LW, 56% LY, and 48% AVG

SPRING WHEAT CONDITIONS:   77%G/E TW, 77% LW, and 37% LY