COMMENTARY 7/21/17

Additional showers last night and this am for S Dakota, N IA, MN, and into N IL, IN, and OH.  Heat is taking its toll and we still have another day and a half to go before relief arrives!

CORN

DOWN 11

The bears were comforted by a band of rain in major producing states with forecasts expecting more chances over the weekend.  As much as 1 to 3″ are thought possible for N IL and IN and scattered showers in the E Dakotas.  The Temps will break Sun but then back UP mid week next week. S TX corn harvest is moving along nicely and is now NW of Austin.  Yields are averaging slightly over 100 bpa and yields getting better as harvest progresses to the N.   In SA, the Safrina crop is 50% harvested vs 57% last year according to AgRural. SA acreage estimates continue to put out lower estimates with Brazil’s ’17-’18 acreage down 11 ½% to 16.35 mill hectares and their Production est to be 15% lower to 93.8 MMT vs prior est of 110.5. Expect this coming Monday’s Crop Progress to show additional deterioration for the dry states, but will the weather forecasts reduce pressure?

 

BEANS

DOWN 4

Showers in NW IA kept things defensive.  Expectations on crop conditions should be lower again on Mon by 1-2%.  In SA, Safras est the 17/18 acreage to increase 5% gain in 17/18 as the double crop corn acres get replaced by ysb’s.

 

WHEAT

DOWN 6

Stronger early but corn ultimately shoved wheat lower. Heavy abandonment continues to be seen in the N Plains as producers bale to minimize losses. In SA, the BA Exchange est 82.5% of the 5.4 mill wheat hectares has now been planted. Some concerns as frost may have affected Parana and Argentina has some 2 mill hectares recently flooded. The 10-15 day forecast DOES have some showers in it for Australia. Will it be too late??