COMMENTARY 7/21/16

Very hot weather is upon us and will keep the Midwest stuffy through the weekend.  Several additional storms are expected to run across parts of the Corn Belt as well.  Next week the really hot temps subside as the heat expands and storm chances increase into Wed as a cool front passes.  Normal rain is expected with normal temps beyond and into early Aug.  The most recent GFS output is cooler and wetter than previously thought.

St Louis river level RISING ~ at 13.6′ and forecast 17.7 by 7/3.  

CORN

OLD ~ DOWN 3    NEW ~ DOWN 3

Heat through the weekend, then the temps moderate and more rain is expected for the Central Belt.  Old crop Export Sales fell short at 13.6 of the 14-22 trade range.  New crop was 19.9 and near the low end of the 18-26 mill bu range.  Big buyers were Mexico, S Korea, and Taiwan

Bloomberg Trader Bias:  Bullish 19% TW (49% LW),  Bearish 31% (24% LW), Neutral 50% (27% LW)

LAST Monday’s

US CONDITIONS:  76% G/E THIS WEEK,  76%  LAST WEEK, 69% LAST YEAR

IL CONDITIONS:  80% G/E THIS WEEK, 76% LAST WEEK

US SILKING: 56% THIS WEEK,  32 % LAST WEEK, 47% LAST YEAR, and 46% AVG

IL SILKING:  77% THIS WEEK,  53 % LAST WEEK,  69% LAST YEAR, and 68% AVG

BEANS     

OLD ~ UP 5       NEW~ UP 3

The US continues to sell old and new crop, plus some commercial buying. Export Sales were 11.9 vs expectations of 11 – 18 mill bu.  New crop was big at 36.8 vs 18-26 expected.  China bought 7.1 old crop and 6.5 new crop.  Meal Sales were great at 150K vs expectations of 10 – 150K.  Economists are saying that the worst Chinese floods since 1998 may weigh on their third quarter economic growth and limit feed demand.

Bloomberg Trader Bias:  Bullish, 13% (78% LW),  Bearish 60% (6% LW), Neutral 27% (16% LW)

LAST Monday’s

US CROP CONDITION: 71% G/E THIS WEEK,   71% LAST WEEK, and 62% LAST YEAR

IL CROP CONDITION: 76% G/E THIS WEEK, 74% LAST WEEK

US BLOOMING: 59% THIS WEEK, 40% LAST WEEK, 51% LAST YEAR and 49% AVG

IL BLOOMING: 60%  THIS WEEK, 39 % LAST WEEK, 49% LAST YEAR, and 54% AVG

US SETTING PODS: 18% THIS WEEK,  7 % LAST WEEK, 14% LAST YEAR and 13% AVG

IL SETTING PODS: 15%  THIS WEEK, 7 % LAST WEEK, 12% LAST YEAR, and 13% AVG

 

 WHEAT          

UP 4

Europe was  higher as quality wheat continues to be a premium.  Export Sales were mid range at 17.6 vs expectations of 15-22 with 12.7 per week neeed.  China bought 2.2 and Brazil 1.1.  Wheat supplies are big world wide but protein levels aren’t.  US HRW is down 11.2% from 12.3% last year and may be the lowest level in 20 yrs!

Bloomberg Trader Bias: Bullish, 20% (42% LW), Bearish 47% (27% LW), Neutral 33% (30% LW)

LAST Monday’s

US WINTER WHEAT HARVESTED:  76% THIS WEEK, 66% LAST WEEK, 72% LAST YEAR, and 73% AVG

IL WINTER WHEAT HARVESTED:  97% THIS WEEK, 95% LAST WEEK, 89% LAST YEAR, and 94% AVG