COMMENTARY 7/20/17

 

More surprise showers popped up this am in the Dakotas and MN.  The heat HAS arrived for the SW half of the Central Belt through SUN, then diminishing next week with a CHANCE for showers. These showers MAY develop along the N edge of the heat.  This market IS infatuated and on the edge of its seat watching weather models.

CORN

UP 8

Woofer! Corn started to show whose boss on weather concerns causing the Funds to buy some 14k contracts today (that’s 70 mill bu worth). The hot temps are taking their affect on areas of the Corn Belt who are lacking rain and we still have several more days until temps cool.  Export Sales were SURPRISINGLY SUPPORTIVE at 18.4 mill vs expectations of a skimpy  6 – 12 mill. Ethanol margins were lower following yesterday’s bearish EIA report showing stocks building with weaker domestic blender demand. Tomorrow, rumors have it that Brazil could announce an increase of their PIS/Cofins tax.  Weather (or weather models) continue to dominate this fragile time of pollination!  Would expect this coming Monday’s Crop Progress to be WEAKER yet.

Mon’s Crop Progress:

US YC SILKING:   40%TW,  19% LW, 53% LY, and 47% AVG

IL YC SILKING:   63% TW, 33% LW, 74% LY, and 8% AVG

US CONDITIONS:  64% G/E,  65% LW, and 76% LY

IL CONDITIONS: 62% G/E, 63% LW  a 1% drop

BEANS

UP 13

Those who influence the market are watching weather forecasts closely and NW IA and SW MN continue to miss showers. Export Sales were stronger than expected this am at 15.0 mill vs 4 – 11 mill bu expected. China bought some more optional origin sales as the market gradually shifts from SA origins to that of the US and we saw some basis improvement accordingly toady nearby and the Brazil Real continues to firm. Mid August will be the time that tells the definition on what are beans will make.

Crop Progress:

US YSB BLOOMING: 52% TW,  34% LW, 56% LY, and 51% AVG

IL YSB BLOOMING:    56% TW, 31% LW, 57% LY, and 54% AVG

US YSB SETTING PODS:   16%TW,  7% LW,  16% LY, and 13% AVG

IL YSB SETTING PODS:   17% TW,  5% LW, 14% LY, and 13% AVG

US CONDITIONS:  61% G/E,  62% LW, and 71% LY

IL CONDITIONS: 67% G/E, 66% LW a 1% increase

 

WHEAT

UP 3

Despite the harsh conditions in the Dakotas, it seems that few seem to care about wheat.  On a positive note, Export Sales of 24.6 mill bu were way above  expectations 9 – 17 mill today with only 14 mill needed per week.  Philippines were the big buyer of 6 mill followed by Mexico, S Korea, Ven, and Nigeria.  Heavy abandonment continues to be seen in the N Plains as producers bale to minimize losses.

Crop Progress:

SPRING WHEAT CONDITIONS:    34 G/E% TW, 35% LW, 69% LY

US WINTER WHEAT HARVESTED:   75% TW, 67% LW, 75 LY, and 73% AVG

IL WINTER WHEAT HARVESTED:    100% TW, 95% LW, 97% LY, and 93% AVG