COMMENTARY 7/20/16

 Very hot weather is upon us and will keep the Midwest stuffy through the weekend.  (But with ample moisture received, it isn’t an issue.) Several additional storms are expected to run across parts of the Corn Belt as well.  Next week the really hot temps subside as the heat expands and storm chances increase into Wed as a cool front passes.  Normal rain is expected with normal temps beyond and into early Aug.  The most recent GFS output is cooler and wetter than previously thought.

St Louis river level RISING ~ at 12.3′ and forecast 16.2 by 7/2.  

CORN

OLD ~ DOWN 4    NEW ~ DOWN 4

Conditions are spectacular, the crop keeps getting bigger, and widespread rains are giving us the protection to fight off 100 deg temps.  Funds were net 14K contracts long just a week ago.  Today they are likely net short over 50K contracts.  Thursday’s Export Sales are expected to be 16 – 24 mill bu.

Monday’s

US CONDITIONS:  76% G/E THIS WEEK,  76%  LAST WEEK, 69% LAST YEAR

IL CONDITIONS:  80% G/E THIS WEEK, 76% LAST WEEK

US SILKING: 56% THIS WEEK,  32 % LAST WEEK, 47% LAST YEAR, and 46% AVG

IL SILKING:  77% THIS WEEK,  53 % LAST WEEK,  69% LAST YEAR, and 68% AVG

 

BEANS     

OLD ~ DOWN 17       NEW~ DOWN 19

Two sided trade today.  China’s demand worries were neutralized by ample showers despite the heat.  China is expected to sell 3-4 MMT of reserves this year.   Thursday’s Export Sales are expected to be 11 – 18 mill bu.  Funds were sellers of 12K contracts on top of the 19K they sold yesterday. They also sold 6K contracts of meal, bringing theie two-day total to 15,000 contracts.

 

Monday’s

US CROP CONDITION: 71% G/E THIS WEEK,   71% LAST WEEK, and 62% LAST YEAR

IL CROP CONDITION: 76% G/E THIS WEEK, 74% LAST WEEK

US BLOOMING: 59% THIS WEEK, 40% LAST WEEK, 51% LAST YEAR and 49% AVG

IL BLOOMING: 60%  THIS WEEK, 39 % LAST WEEK, 49% LAST YEAR, and 54% AVG

US SETTING PODS: 18% THIS WEEK,  7 % LAST WEEK, 14% LAST YEAR and 13% AVG

IL SETTING PODS: 15%  THIS WEEK, 7 % LAST WEEK, 12% LAST YEAR, and 13% AVG

 

 WHEAT          

DOWN 5

Harvest pressured today.  Support though was found on concern from heat.  Thursday’s Export Sales are expected to 13 – 20 mill bu.

Monday’s

US WINTER WHEAT HARVESTED:  76% THIS WEEK, 66% LAST WEEK, 72% LAST YEAR, and 73% AVG

IL WINTER WHEAT HARVESTED:  97% THIS WEEK, 95% LAST WEEK, 89% LAST YEAR, and 94% AVG