COMMENTARY 7/19/18

Cool weather feels NICE!  Temps will be cooler than normal with showers likely especially for N NE and MN with another 1 to 2″ possible.  N MO caught some much needed showers today as well as the W edge of IL.

CORN

UP 4

With a National yield of 174, the USDA’s 10.5% stocks to use ratio would imply that Dec fut are underpriced in the $3.60’s. Export Sales are ROCKIN’ today at 25.2 mill vs expectations of 12 -24!  New crop was also impressive at 30.5 vs expectations of 8 – 20!  Soon it will be VERY hard to hurt the crop.

 

BEANS              

 

UP 4

The fifth day in row to close higher. Hearing reports of crush plants reducing the amount of downtime (due to redcor high margins).  Most processors are showing an inverse to harvest replacement levels and it’s ok to start into an old crop basis short IF cheaper replacement is certain. Export Sales were positive at 9.3 vs expectations of 7 -18.  Seems like everyone else IS buying our US beans! Big buyer was Canada and China cancelled 4.4 mill.  More evidence out of China today that their currency values are NOT handling the pressure well.

 

 

 

 

 WHEAT

UP 9

Fears that global production will shrink even more.  Several HRS tours are getting ready to take place next week.   Our US domestic situation looks bearish today but by Jan should be starting to see an increase in US exports as world production declines.  Export Sales were 11 vs expectations of 6 -18 miil bu.