COMMENTARY 7/19/16

Great Crop Conditions continue to dictate.  The huge upper level high continues to for at least 2 more weeks, but next week cooler. Storms should continue to pop up over the Belt, then after this weekend, temps ease back to regular hot levels are shoved out by a cool front.  After that, yet another hot spell is still expected as we slide into Aug.

St Louis river level RISING ~ at 11.6′ and forecast 14.4 by 7/24.  

CORN

OLD ~ DOWN 15    NEW ~ DOWN 14

Heavy rains are taking place in key corn and bean areas of Iowa.  Totals are expected to exceed 1″ and were expected to continue into the afternoon.  Yesterday’s Crop Ratings were unchanged were 7 points ahead of a year ago! Trade had expected a one point decline.  The percent of the crop in the silking stage rose 24 points to 56%, 9 ahead of LY and 10 above the 5-year average!

Monday’s

US CONDITIONS:  76% G/E THIS WEEK,  76%  LAST WEEK, 69% LAST YEAR

IL CONDITIONS:  80% G/E THIS WEEK, 76% LAST WEEK

US SILKING: 56% THIS WEEK,  32 % LAST WEEK, 47% LAST YEAR, and 46% AVG

IL SILKING:  77% THIS WEEK,  53 % LAST WEEK,  69% LAST YEAR, and 68% AVG

BEANS     

OLD ~ DOWN 34       NEW~ DOWN 39

Yield concerns ease with showers about.  Ratings were unchanged at 71%, as expected 9 higher than last year and, 11 above the 5 yr avg.  Oil World reduced their est of Chinese imports over the weekend to 80-82 MMT vs the last USDA est of 83 MMT. This would be bearish for US exports, but at the same time, news out of Argentina has their new President looking at NOT reducing their export tariff (which he promised during the election). His reason?  Money troubles.  The need for revenue and that Argentine farmers are seeing better economic returns than other citizens. Makes you wonder if the farmer will retaliate by planting more corn acres  and less beans.

 

Monday’s

US CROP CONDITION: 71% G/E THIS WEEK,   71% LAST WEEK, and 62% LAST YEAR

IL CROP CONDITION: 76% G/E THIS WEEK, 74% LAST WEEK

US BLOOMING: 59% THIS WEEK, 40% LAST WEEK, 51% LAST YEAR and 49% AVG

IL BLOOMING: 60%  THIS WEEK, 39 % LAST WEEK, 49% LAST YEAR, and 54% AVG

US SETTING PODS: 18% THIS WEEK,  7 % LAST WEEK, 14% LAST YEAR and 13% AVG

IL SETTING PODS: 15%  THIS WEEK, 7 % LAST WEEK, 12% LAST YEAR, and 13% AVG

 

 WHEAT          

DOWN 12

Quiet for the most part with plentiful supplies everywhere and record world ending stocks.  Funds sold 3,000 contracts today.

Monday’s

US WINTER WHEAT HARVESTED:  76% THIS WEEK, 66% LAST WEEK, 72% LAST YEAR, and 73% AVG

IL WINTER WHEAT HARVESTED:  97% THIS WEEK, 95% LAST WEEK, 89% LAST YEAR, and 94% AVG