COMMENTARY 7/18/18

Cool weather feels NICE!  Temps will be cooler than normal with showers likely especially for N NE and MN with another 1 to 2″ possible.  MI,  N MO, and E KS are the dry spots.

CORN

UP 1

Quiet.  Very calm on the weather front for the next couple weeks.  Today’s EIA Ethanol report was hearty at 1.064 mill bu and above the 1.046 average guess, exceeding the high end of the 1.04-1.054 range.  There was a big reduction on inventories, dropping 625 K barrels to 21.768 mill.  This too was below the average guess of 22.319 and below the low end of the 22.0-22.65 mill barrel range.  Tomorrow’s Export Sales are expected to be 12 – 24 mill bu with 14.1 needed per week. Cheap commodities spur demand!!  Our US corn is now $8-13 per MT CHEAPER than Brazil’s, now through Dec!

 

Mon’s Crop Progress:

US YC CONDITIONS:  72% G/E, 75% LW, and 64% LY

IL YC CONDITIONS:    80% G/E,   81% LW,  62% LY

US SILKING:   63% TW,  37 % LW, 37% LY, and 37% AVG

IL SILKING:   93% TW,  76% LW, 59% LY, and 57% AVG

BEANS              

UP 3

Today saw a rare sight.  Pakistan bought 7.3 mill bu of US beans.  US beans continue to get closer to the same price as Brazil’s beans, even with the 25% tariff.  There is new talk of China having interest in having additional trade talks.  More negative consensus leaking out of China regarding the weak nature of their stock market and financial stability.  Shanghai just made it through the fourth consecutive lower day.  (Oh – and they need our beans!) Nothing more is known about a potential aid package for US producers until harvest gets closer.  More stories are surfacing about the EU being more willing to discuss ways to get there automobiles into the US.  Production of other types of oilseeds is dwindling and that means more dependence for China on bean meal.  China is opening the world’s LARGEST hatchery, Hy-Line Distribution.  It will be capable of producing 60 mill per year.  Guess what those little fellers eat in their rations as they grow? – Bean Meal!!  China has sold 832 K MT of their reserve bean stocks so far this year. Export Sales, out tomorrow,  are expected to be 7 – 18 mill with a -3.2 needed per week.

 

Crop Progress:
US YS CONDITIONS:  69% G/E, 71% LW, and 61% LY

IL YSB CONDITIONS:    73% G/E,   72% LW,  and 67% LY

US YSB BLOOMING:   65% TW,  47% LW, 49% LY, and 45% AVG

IL YSB BLOOMING:   79% TW,  64% LW, 52% LY, and 48% AVG

US YSB SETTING PODS:   26% TW,  11 % LW, 15 % LY, and 11% AVG

IL YSB BLOOMING:   44% TW,  21% LW, 15% LY, and 11% AVG

 

 WHEAT

DOWN 3

Quiet and came down off of the early am highs.  Australia is line for more drying especially in the E. Longer term too, the trade is concerned that El Nino will have an additional negative impact. Rain possibilities have improved for W Russia, Belarus, Poland and W Ukraine. Now some areas could potentially get too much! In Manitoba, Canada, warmer temps have helped crops but would still benefit from some accums.  Export Sales, out tomorrow, are expected to be 6 – 18 mill with 16 needed per week.

Crop Progress:

US WINTER HARVESTED:     74% TW, 63% LW, 74% LY, and 71% AVG

IL WINTER HARVESTED:     97% TW, 92% LW, 99% LY, and 93% AVG

SPRING WHEAT CONDITIONS:   80%G/E TW, 80% LW, and 34% LY

SPRING WHEAT HEADED:   93%TW, 81% LW, 89% LY, and 85% AVG