COMMENTARY 7/18/17

Some surprise showers popped up overnight for the much dry Dakotas.  the heat HAS arrived for the SW half of the Central Belt through SUN, then diminishing next week with a CHANCE for showers. These showers MAY develop along the N edge of the heat.  This market IS infatuated and on the edge of its seat watching weather models.

CORN

UP 2

Fund buying fueled by yesterday’s further declining conditions rallied the market some 13 cents early this am. The surprise was parts of NE and the Dakotas received some decent rains early this morning, slowing wilt of the crop especially in front of high heat for the rest of the week. Forecast  models are still calling for some areas to get good coverage of 1.5″ to 3” of rain for the N half of IA and S MN.  This would be JUST in time to help the parchy areas of NW IA and wW MN. Some mid day models also reduced some heat AFTER this weekend.  Stay tuned!

 

Yest’s Crop Progress:

US YC SILKING:   40%TW,  19% LW, 53% LY, and 47% AVG

IL YC SILKING:   63% TW, 33% LW, 74% LY, and 8% AVG

US CONDITIONS:  64% G/E,  65% LW, and 76% LY

IL CONDITIONS: 62% G/E, 63% LW  a 1% drop

BEANS

UP 4

Similar to corn, Fund buying early.  Yesterday’s crop rating slipped and we sold off the am high as the forecast models continue to offer up the CHANCE for rain and some non-100′ temps next week.   The US 6-10 forecast was cool and dry for the E Corn Belt. The W Belt was a mix of normal to above normal temps with below precip.

Yest’s Crop Progress:

US YSB BLOOMING: 52% TW,  34% LW, 56% LY, and 51% AVG

IL YSB BLOOMING:    56% TW, 31% LW, 57% LY, and 54% AVG

US YSB SETTING PODS:   16%TW,  7% LW,  16% LY, and 13% AVG

IL YSB SETTING PODS:   17% TW,  5% LW, 14% LY, and 13% AVG

US CONDITIONS:  61% G/E,  62% LW, and 71% LY

IL CONDITIONS: 67% G/E, 66% LW a 1% increase

 

WHEAT

DOWN 2

Fund selling pushed things lower by the end of the day, some 14 cents off the high. This was the second consecutive day Chic and the KC futures broke away the MN market.  Sep fut closed near the 50% retracement from the June low and just above (psychological) support at $5.00. Funds are thought to have sold 4k contracts of Chicago wheat today. The US $ was also down 500 points but didn’t add enough support to keep things positive. territory.   Values in Australia continue to firm as the drought conditions get worse in the S and W.

Yest’s Crop Progress:

SPRING WHEAT CONDITIONS:    34 G/E% TW, 35% LW, 69% LY

US WINTER WHEAT HARVESTED:   75% TW, 67% LW, 75 LY, and 73% AVG

IL WINTER WHEAT HARVESTED:    100% TW, 95% LW, 97% LY, and 93% AVG