COMMENTARY 7/18/14

BIG BASIS DROPS IN SRW TODAY – NEARLY 25 CENTS!!  ~MARKET CHOKES FEED GRADE WHEAT~

The forecast for unseasonable cool temps ends tomorrow, followed by 5-7 days of heat with a seasonable to slightly-cool pattern on tap for late-July and early-August.  The lack of sustained heat and very-high corn and soybean condition ratings limit yield concerns.  Compared to this week’s 10-year average, corn and soybean conditions are rated 15 and 13 points higher.  If the current forecast is correct, any heat-related stress next week would be limited since July is ranked #5 coolest in 120 years.  Scattered storms return to northern areas Mon.-Tue., then a larger area from Thu. Forward.

St Louis river levels EASING at +26.2 ft today and forecast 20.9 by 7/23.

CORN                      

DOWN 8

New Crop barge freight is ratcheting higher with the continued buzz about the super-sized crop we have growing.  Weather forecast is just not threatening and one more good inch of rain will make the crop hard to hurt, that is, …….barring an early frost.  Nothing like that in the forecast at this time although the old timers say, “when you hear the first locust we are 6 weeks until frost”.  (Someone locally heard locusts around July 5th).  We’ll leave it up to you to do the math.  NOTE:  this is NOT a good excuse to continue to hold old corn into new crop into declining and inverted market.

RECORD YIELDS VERY LIKELY.  Yields COULD be as much as 5 – 7 bpa ABOVE trend line.  We COULD be experiencing the 4th coolest pollination  since 1980.  The next 5 – 10 days will tell the story.   Some analysts suggesting  $3.00-$3.25 December corn Futures by harvest.  Today, Dec Futures are $3.78.

Nationwide Crop Rating  improved  1% at 76% G/E vs 75% LW and 66% LY.  The State of IL  increased 1% at 81% G/E vs 80% LW.  US CORN SILKING was 34% This Week, 15%% LW, 15%LY and 33% AVG.  The State of IL Silking was 62% This Week, 28% LW, 19% LY, and 48% AVG.  (NEXT REPORT OUT MON 7/21)

 

BEANS    

OLD ~ UP 2      NEW~ DOWN 8

USDA reports 464 K MT sold to Unknown, along with 116 k MT optional origin to China, all for 14/15 delivery.  That put a little spring in the old crop’s step.  Crop Ratings on Monday are expected to be unchanged, at 72% Good/Excellent.  Domestically  and globally, the S&D’s are suspected bearish, unless something irreversible happens to the US crop in the next few weeks.

The (6/30) USDA REPORT WAS BEARISH FOR OLD & NEW CROP BEANS.   ACRES 84.84 vs 81.49 million.  (Avg guess was 82 million)  The report added 3.3 million more to planted acres and “found” some beans as the negative residual was 23 million more than the trade had been anticipating. Stocks were .405 vs. 992Funds are still LONG (that means a large amount of selling would likely pressure the Board).

US CROP CONDITIONS are 72 % G/E, 72% LW, and65%LY. The State of IL was 76% G/E THIS WEEK and 75%LW.  US BLOOMING was 41% THIS WEEK, 24% LW, 24% LY, and 37% AVG.  BLOOMMING for the State of IL was 50% THIS WEEK, 29% LW, 29% LY, and 36% AVG.      (NEXT REPORT OUT MON 7/21)

 

WHEAT          

DOWN 18

Rebound from yesterday’s rally caused by Russia/Ukraine tensions mount as the  Malaysian jet liner was shot down by a missile causing temporary Fund buying.  Today European wheat futures closed lower which put some additional pressure on U.S. markets. Traders remain concerned that as much as 30% of French wheat has been impacted by heavy rain & quality loss.  Harvest continues to work its way North into WI, MI, & S. Ontario. Despite losing some acres this spring, overall quality seems to be pretty good so far.  Locally, Higher barge freight nearby weighs on basis values as the market continues to access the damage and costs associated with vomitoxin AND LOW TEST WEIGHTS.   BIG BASIS DROPS TODAY – NEARLY 25 CENTS!!  Test Weights below 56.0 are becoming harder to find a market for.  Wheat mills, as well as River Terminals are tightening the noose as they reject higher levels of vomi (over 4.0, 5.0, and 6.0).  Higher discounts for lower Test Weights may be in our cards in the immediate near future. Vomi discounts are significant as the markets digest the effects of FEED GRADE quality wheat. 

FOR QUALITY:  Keep the bin fans on, take moisture below 13.0 to help ensure that conditions inside the bin are not conducive for fungal growth.  If they are, vomitoxin levels CAN grow if the fungus is allowed to prosper.

Winter heat HARVESTED is 69% This Week, 57% LW, 66% LY, and 68% AVG.  The STATE of IL is 90% HARVESTED This Week, 82% LW, 85% LY, and 91% AVG.  (NEXT REPORT OUT MON 7/21)