COMMENTARY 7/17/18

Cooler days ahead! -and maybe for the next two weeks.  More showers likely as well for the N like NE and MN with another 1 to 2″ possible.  MI,  N MO, and E KS are the dry spots.

CORN

UP 5

It appears yesterday’s crop ratings was more than buyers today had bargained for.  There are a couple dry spots beginning to materialize and Brazil’s export program is off to a slow start.  Cordonnier is unchanged on his US yield est at 178 bpa vs last USDA report of 174.  Planalytics has raised their est from 174.0 to 176.2.  Brazil’s Center and Southern areas are 25% harvested, which is 11 behind last year at this time. Brazil’s July exports are at 183 K MT, down hard from 819 K exported this time last year.

Mon’s Crop Progress:

US YC CONDITIONS:  72% G/E, 75% LW, and 64% LY

IL YC CONDITIONS:    80% G/E,   81% LW,  62% LY

US SILKING:   63% TW,  37 % LW, 37% LY, and 37% AVG

IL SILKING:   93% TW,  76% LW, 59% LY, and 57% AVG

BEANS              

UP 10

Support also came from the fact that even despite the 25% tariff, our US beans CONTINUE to get more in line, similarly to those of Brazil. Strength in corn helped along.  For the record, it is the opinion of one St Louis based company (no names) that the tariff issue will go unresolved for up to two years. More reasonably, today, Citibank expects the US/China trade war to be finished prior the US 2018 midterm election (in Aug). ProFarmer too believes there will be a deal by mid Aug. One thing IS for certain, we ARE in unprecedented times!

What we DO know? Bean values (in Brazil) are now approaching a $2 per bu premium to the US Gulf.  Keep this in the back of your mind:  Old/new unshipped sales to entities that are known (know NOT to be China) are -> 60% higher than this time last year, which was a recent high as well.  Brazil’s exports for the first two weeks in July are -> 56% higher than this time last year at 5.3 MMT!  Meal export shipments (OUT of Brazil) are 830 K MT, that’s -> 77% bigger than this time last year! (someone IS running out of beans!)  According to Oil World, SA’s bean supplies should be getting thin/tight by the end of Aug. (are you noticing a patternAug?) Time will tell.  As far as US yield ests, Cordonnier is still 1.5 bu higher than the last USDA report at 50 bpa.

 

 Crop Progress:
US YS CONDITIONS:  69% G/E, 71% LW, and 61% LY

IL YSB CONDITIONS:    73% G/E,   72% LW,  and 67% LY

US YSB BLOOMING:   65% TW,  47% LW, 49% LY, and 45% AVG

IL YSB BLOOMING:   79% TW,  64% LW, 52% LY, and 48% AVG

US YSB SETTING PODS:   26% TW,  11 % LW, 15 % LY, and 11% AVG

IL YSB BLOOMING:   44% TW,  21% LW, 15% LY, and 11% AVG

 

 WHEAT

UP 9

Yields in Russia continue to disappoint although there are some increased chances for rain in W Russia, Belarus, Poland and W Ukraine.  E Australia is still dry and still causing quality concerns.

Crop Progress:

US WINTER HARVESTED:     74% TW, 63% LW, 74% LY, and 71% AVG

IL WINTER HARVESTED:     97% TW, 92% LW, 99% LY, and 93% AVG

SPRING WHEAT CONDITIONS:   80%G/E TW, 80% LW, and 34% LY

SPRING WHEAT HEADED:   93%TW, 81% LW, 89% LY, and 85% AVG