COMMENTARY 7/16/18

Moderate temps.  Warm here but cooler in the Plains.

CORN

UNCHANGED

Rains over the weekend eased concerns for dry areas.  Nearby forecast is cool and wet, great for ear development.  Today’s Export Inspections were mid range at 47.9 vs expectations of 35 -59 but a bit light of the 70 per week still needed to make the USDA’s 2.4bill bu est.  In SA, Safras expects Brazil to plant 1.6% fewer acres and 2.3% more beans. The USDA, on the other hand, expects 5.4% more corn and 6.8% more beans.  Crop conditions slipped a little as expected today but still WAY ahead of normal!

Crop Progress:

US YC CONDITIONS:  72% G/E, 75% LW, and 64% LY

IL YC CONDITIONS:    80% G/E,   81% LW,  62% LY

US SILKING:   63% TW,  37 % LW, 37% LY, and 37% AVG

IL SILKING:   93% TW,  76% LW, 59% LY, and 57% AVG

BEANS              

UP 11

Short covering from Fri’s sell off.  Brazil’s beans are now valued at a $2.20 premium to our US, which IS mighty attractive to bean buyers (if you AREN’T China!).  Export Inspections were amid range but still disappointing at 23.3 vs expectations of 11- 29 mill and 30.3 needed per week.  China did cancel two mill.  June’s NOPA crush was better than expected this am at 159.2 in a 154- 167 range.  Compares to May at 163.6 and 138 this time last year.   Crop conditions still ahead of normal.  Out of 18 bean states, only MI had a significant drop of 5%.

 Crop Progress:
US YS CONDITIONS:  69% G/E, 71% LW, and 61% LY

IL YSB CONDITIONS:    73% G/E,   72% LW,  and 67% LY

US YSB BLOOMING:   65% TW,  47% LW, 49% LY, and 45% AVG

IL YSB BLOOMING:   79% TW,  64% LW, 52% LY, and 48% AVG

US YSB SETTING PODS:   26% TW,  11 % LW, 15 % LY, and 11% AVG

IL YSB BLOOMING:   44% TW,  21% LW, 15% LY, and 11% AVG

 

 

WHEAT

DOWN 8

The Black Sea Region received neneficial rains over the weekend and US harvest progress continues to move along ahead of normal.  The Rosario Exchange raised Argentina’s expected plantings 180 K hectares to 6.18 mill with a 20 MMT Production.  Export Inpsections today were 17.3 vs expectations of 7 – 15 mill and 19.4 mill needed per week. Agritel has Garmany’s crop at 21.5 MMT, down 12% from last year and 16% below their 5 yr avg!

 

 Crop Progress:

US WINTER HARVESTED:     74% TW, 63% LW, 74% LY, and 71% AVG

IL WINTER HARVESTED:     97% TW, 92% LW, 99% LY, and 93% AVG

SPRING WHEAT CONDITIONS:   80%G/E TW, 80% LW, and 34% LY

SPRING WHEAT HEADED:   93%TW, 81% LW, 89% LY, and 85% AVG