COMMENTARY 7/12/18

More normal temps now expected for the Central US the next two weeks.  Still questionable conditions for N Central MO and W IL but rains are in their forecast.  These ARE critical times for corn fungicide application, finishing pollination and filling kernels with test weight! We could USE another inch.

 CORN

UP 6

Friendly!  Today’s report brought a few welcome signs and some encouragement.  Old crop stocks were reduced 75 mill bu to 2.027 vs an avg guess of 2.107 bill and  in a range of 2.052 to 2.177.  Production was increased 19 mill to 14.230 bill and new crop ending stocks were reduced by 25 mill bu at 1.552.  Avg guess there was 1.712.  World ending stocks, too, were lowered by 2.730 MMT. – And no more sneak-peeks for the media from now on!  Thursday’s weekly Export Sales were a shade on the skinny side at 15.8 vs expectations of 16 – 31 and only 1.6 needed per week.

 

BEANS              

UP 1

Export Sales, like corn, were skimpy at just 5.8 mill vs expectations of 7-18 mill but we DID get some support from the USDA report. Nov fut hit a new low, early at 8.38.  Though thought preemptively to be negative, it seems China’s demand may have been already figured in. Old crop ending stocks were reduced 40 mill bu to 465 mill vs the avg guess of 507 in a range of 478- 530.  Production was increased 30 mill to 4.310.  The most bearish part was new crop stocks increased 195 mill to 580 vs the avg guess of 471.  World stocks were increased 11.250 MMT to 98.27.  The US export forecast for the coming year dropped 250 mill from the last report to 2.040 bill (due to issues with China).  SA should be a likely competitor for next year.  The avg farm price forecast dropped 75 cents to $9.25!  We should be getting REAL close to having the cheapest beans (in the world market).  Makes it hard for someone who NEEDS beans and meal to continue to hold their noses up in the air.

  

WHEAT

UP 13

Consider this report as neutral to slightly supportive with the market likely to get right back to focusing on less than ideal growing conditions in Russia, Australia, and the EU.  Old crop ending stocks were increased 20 mill to 1.100 bill.  Our HRS production was higher than expected at 584 mill. New crop production was increased 40 mill and 18/19 ending stocks were raised 39 mill.  World wheat ending stocks, on the other hand, were supported as it was reduced by  5.280 MMT to 260.88.   Our national avg yield forecast is 47.6 compared to 41.0 last year.  Thursday’s Export Sales weren’t encouraging at only 5 mill vs expectations of 7 – 18 mill and 15.4 mill needed per week.