COMMENTARY 7/11/18

More normal temps now expected for the Central US the next two weeks. Rain chances should be more normal for this time of year as well.

 

 CORN

DOWN 7

More tariffs and non-threatening weather!  Areas most vulnerable to stress are E KS into MO along with portions of SE IA.  Parts of MI and in the East are still suffering from being too wet early.  The rest of the corn belt is looking hearty!  For tomorrow’s report, old crop stocks are thought to be 2.115 in a 2.058 to 2.200 range and New crop at 1.725 in a 1.455 to 2.022 range.  Production looks like a 14.304 bill bu with a 175.1 yield and compares to the USDA at 14.040 and a 174.0 bpa. Conab has reduced Brazil’s yc production by 2.4% to 82.9 MT tons due to drought affecting the double crop corn (currently taking place).   <-THIS WILL BE THE LAST REPORT where the media will be privy to information before its official release! ->  From Reuters, starting NEXT month ,the USDA will STOP giving crop data under “embargo” to media in an attempt to make the release of market moving information more fair. News companies will receive global grain supply/demand reports at the SAME time as the public.  For years, the USDA allowed the media, including Reuters, early access to crop data but prevented the news companies from publishing it until a specific time. The info released under “embargo” gave reporters time to analyze the data, which could affect grain prices.  This gave some media users a trading advantage. “The new procedures will level the playing field and make the issuance of the reports fair to everyone involved,”  said new Sec Sonny Perdue. “The inference is that private agents are paying the news agencies for faster data transmission to get a jump on the market,” the USDA said. The news media are currently allowed access to crop data 90 minutes early in a room at USDA headquarters in DC, with their reports embargoed until noon.  Thursday’s Export Sales are est to be 16 – 31 mill bu.

Mon’s Crop Progress:

US YC CONDITIONS:  75% G/E, 76% LW, and 65% LY

IL YC CONDITIONS:    81% G/E,   85% LW,  63% LY

US SILKING:   37% TW,  17 % LW, 18% LY, and 18% AVG

IL SILKING:   76% TW,  40% LW, 30% LY, and 32% AVG

 

BEANS              

DOWN 22

Additional tariffs emerge as Pres. Trump applies stronger force on other countries in NATO that Aren’t paying their fair share and some sanctions against countries NOT wanting to take their illegal aliens back. Another $200 bill in tariffs will go in to place, but not for another two months. Brazil’s transportation issues continue, slowing the movement of beans and corn.  According to CONAB, costs right now are some 30% higher than this time last year, slowing the rate that bean/products can be exported. Chinese officials are trying to minimize the effects of the trade war locally by issuing statements along the lines that they have their feed use under control and don’t really need US beans. Tomorrow’s Export sales are est to be 7 – 18 mill.

 Crop Progress:

US YS CONDITIONS:  71% G/E, 71% LW, and 62% LY

IL YSB CONDITIONS:    72% G/E,   78% LW,  and 66% LY

US YSB BLOOMING:   47% TW,  27 % LW, 32 % LY, and 27% AVG

IL YSB BLOOMING:   64% TW,  44% LW, 29% LY, and 26% AVG

US YSB SETTING PODS:   11% TW,  na % LW, 6 % LY, and 4% AVG

IL YSB BLOOMING:   21% TW,  2% LW, 4% LY, and 3% AVG

  

WHEAT

DOWN 17

Looking for new news, but hard to keep all the speculators from selling.  Black Sea region quality continues to suffer from being too wet.  Tomorrow, the trade is expecting our ending stocks to be 985 mill bu in a 924-1.084 range and vs last mo’s est of 946 mill bu. Export Sales, out tomorrow, are expected to be between 7-18 mill.

 Crop Progress:

US WINTER HARVESTED:     63% TW, 51% LW, 65% LY, and 61% AVG

IL WINTER HARVESTED:     92% TW, 83% LW, 94% LY, and 84% AVG

SPRING WHEAT CONDITIONS:   80%G/E TW, 77% LW, and 35% LY