COMMENTARY 6/6/18

Coverage and expected amounts are increasing to 1.50” to 3.00” in the next 7 to 10 days!  Temps still expected to get warmer as we move through the week, with humidity increasing, hence the increased chance for storms.  The Delta and S Plains, however are forecast to stay on the drier side.

 

CORN

DOWN 5

A two sided am just couldn’t hold.  Forecast is making the market feel very comfortable for the time being.  In the tariff dept, In July, the EU is expected to create a “rebalancing” of the tariffs on $3.4 billion worth of US steel, whiskey, peanut butter, cranberries and orange juice, beginning in July.  Still no deal announced on biofuel policy as planned changes continue to be deferred.  Many were expecting an announcement from Washington late yesterday on the E15 waiver along with ethanol exports generating a rin. Tomorrow’s Export Sales are thought to be between 24 -35 mill bu with only 5.8 needed per week.

 

BEANS              

DOWN 7

Non-threatening weather isn’t helping to firm the market.  China is proposing to buy $70B worth of US goods and did help support in the overnight into this morning, but with no additional news confirming or denying turned buying to selling. The deadline for the US to enact the $50 in tariffs on Chinese good is June 15.  In SA, while Brazil shipped record amounts, 12 MMT or 440 mbu of beans in April, the US shipped 79.6 mbu compared to 119 last month and 113 mill bu last year. Meal exports for April were up 47% from last year.  The Real was weaker again vs the US dollar and Brazil’s old crop bean sales are est to be 73% vs 61% last year and 70% normally.  Tomorrow’s US Export Sales are thought to be 7 -18 mill bu with just 1.9 mill needed per week.

 

WHEAT

 

 

UP 10

Wheat steps away from the other row crops and closed firm due to the persistence of global weather issues.  Upcoming rains across Ukraine will help out and conditions are currently favorable overall for winter wheat in W Russia, yields are  being reduced from earlier heat and recent dryness.  The W and S have recv’d less than half of their normal precip in the last two months. Beneficial rains in the N Plains and Canadian Prairies did pressure the hard red spring wheat.  HRW harvest continues in OK.  Initial yields are close to the USDA’s 26 bpa and protein is ranging from 10.5-16%.  Significant harvest for srw here and S IN are still 2-3 weeks out , but there are a few spots with early maturing varieties that will likely be taken off in the meantime.