COMMENTARY 6/5/18

Both rain coverage and amounts have increased to 1.25” to 2.50” over the next 10 days for most of the US Belt and spring wheat temps have cooled slightly.  Hot temps to come as the week wears on.

CORN

UP 3

We reached some technical support yesterday (finally) and the one point decline in ratings helped to lend support….and felt better over China/US relations.  Cordonnier’s US yield estimate is at 176 bp, with bias towards the higher side.  Planalytics est’s yield at 171.7 and compares to the USDA at 174.0.  Mexico claims to inflict a 20% tariff on imported US pork shoulders and loins in retaliation to taxes on selected Mexican products. (once again, it is NICE to have a food item that they are threatening to tax)  In SA, Cordonnier lowered his est of Brazil’s crop 1 to 81.0 MMT with a bias to further decline. Argentina is still held steady at 32.0 with a neutral bias.

Mon’s Crop Progress:

US YC PLANTED:   97% TW,  92% LW, 95% LY, and 95% AVG

IL YC PLANTED:   100% TW,  100% LW, 97% LY, and 97% AVG

US YC EMERGED:   86% TW,  72% LW, 84% LY, and 83% AVG

IL YC EMERGED:   91% TW,  89% LW, 89% LY, and 90% AVG

US YC CONDITIONS:  78% G/E, 79% LW,

IL YC CONDITIONS:    81% G/E,   83% LW,  59% LY

BEANS              

UNCHANGED

Lower most of the morning but did manage to turn positive.  Unshipped soybean sales still remain 75+ mbu over last year and a record high for this time of year. Yesterday’s initial ratings at 75% G/E ARE ahead of last year’s as none were available then and ahead of the 5 yr avg at 69%.  Planalytics est’s the US yield at 48.0 bpa, a half bpa lower than the USDA. KS needs water while Cordonnier’s est is 50 bpa with a bias, higher. His SA est has been raised with Brazil’s production a 1 MMT increase to 117.0 and Argentina steady at 36.0.  Paranagua basis was 20-30 cents higher today on disruptions caused by truck freight increases (the strike) and the China/US trade disagreements.

 Crop Progress:
US YSB PLANTED:   87% TW,  77% LW, 81% LY, and 675 AVG

IL YSB PLANTED:   94% TW,  90% LW, 82% LY, and 77% AVG

US YSB EMERGED:   68% TW,  47 % LW, 55% LY, and 52% AVG

IL YSB EMERGED:   85% TW,  75% LW, 59% LY, and 57% AVG

US YC CONDITIONS:  75% G/E, NA% LW

IL YC CONDITIONS:    78% G/E,   80% LW,  NA% LY

 

WHEAT

UP 5

Turn around Tues on technical buying?  It’s going to take a while to recover from Mon’s 18 cent drop at this rate.  Most adverse weather issues are still relatively prevalent.  Russia production issues  helped support and now the Black Sea’s deferred forecast does have some additional chances for moisture. China’s crop is expected to drop to a 4 yr low of 126.7 due to over abundant May rain….. which is different than their corn growing regions that are still too dry.  Brazil is rumored to have purchased to US vessels of srw over the weekend.

Crop Progress:

US WINTER WHEAT CONDITIONS:   37% G/E TW,  38% LW, and 49% LY

IL WINTER WHEAT CONDITIONS:    62% G/E TW,  66% LW, and 57% LY

US WINTER WHEAT HEADED:     83% TW,  73% LW, 86% LY, and 83% AVG

IL WINTER WHEAT HEADED:    98% TW,  93% LW, 100% LY, and 95% AVG

US WINTER HARVESTED:     5% TW, NA% LW, 9% LY, and 4% AVG

IL WINTER HARVESTED:

US SPRING WHEAT PLANTED:   97% TW, 91% LW, 99% LY, and 94% AVG

US SPRING WHEAT EMERGED:   81% TW, 63% LW, 88% LY, and 82% AVG

SPRING WHEAT CONDITIONS:   70%G/E TW, NA LW, and 55% LY