COMMENTARY 6/4/18

Unstable air masses especially once we get into mid-week. This makes likelihood of some 1 – 2” of accum for a good part of the US with above avg temps into next week. Last half June is still a ways off but at this point, expected to be warm and wet.

CORN

DOWN 11

The weather outlook is not threatening, causing July fut to close below the 200 day avg.  Export Inspections were nice at 61.2 vs expectations of 43 -63 mill, down a pinch from last week’s 67.1 and compares to 46.3.  This afternoon’s Conditions were expected to be steady or improve slightly…..but ended up dropping one.  See actuals below.  An Iowa based private est’s Brazil crop lower at 78.4.  That is 600 K less than the most recent est from Safras.  Weather and China will continue to aggravate the market.

 

Crop Progress:

US YC PLANTED:   97% TW,  92% LW, 95% LY, and 95% AVG

IL YC PLANTED:   100% TW,  100% LW, 97% LY, and 97% AVG

US YC EMERGED:   86% TW,  72% LW, 84% LY, and 83% AVG

IL YC EMERGED:   91% TW,  89% LW, 89% LY, and 90% AVG

US YC CONDITIONS:  78% G/E, 79% LW,

IL YC CONDITIONS:    81% G/E,   83% LW,  59% LY

BEANS              

DOWN 20

Nice growing conditions and no weekend improvements in US/China trade relations.  Would THINK the market would be getting somewhat bored with the trade issue talk.  Export Inspections were mid-range at 20.5 vs expectations of 15 -26 mill, and with 26.6 still needed per week.  There WAS a new sale announced of 114KMT to Mexico for 18/19.  Crop conditions were expected to be 78-80% G/E and came out with 75%. This tied 2010 for the best INITIAL  crop rating on record. See actuals below.  Nov fut broke though their 100 day support level of 10.25 at 10.19.

 Crop Progress:
US YSB PLANTED:   87% TW,  77% LW, 81% LY, and 675 AVG

IL YSB PLANTED:   94% TW,  90% LW, 82% LY, and 77% AVG

US YSB EMERGED:   68% TW,  47 % LW, 55% LY, and 52% AVG

IL YSB EMERGED:   85% TW,  75% LW, 59% LY, and 57% AVG

US YC CONDITIONS:  75% G/E, NA% LW

IL YC CONDITIONS:    78% G/E,   80% LW,  NA% LY

 

WHEAT

DOWN 18

Better weather and forecasts make for a WEAK Mon and made for the biggest drop in eleven months! Concerns about diplomatic trade relations with China and new NAFTA negotiations with Mexico/Canada continue. Winter wheat conditions were expected to improve a point, some 10 below last year. See actuals below. Some folks in W Australia are expecting rain this week but only trace amounts the farther you move into the interior. Futures in the Black Sea Region were higher as Russia is still dry and showing no signs of breaking any time soon. Export Inspections were 12.5 vs expectations of 15 -22 and 10.5 needed….significantly better than the last several weeks.

Crop Progress:

 

US WINTER WHEAT CONDITIONS:   37% G/E TW,  38% LW, and 49% LY

IL WINTER WHEAT CONDITIONS:    62% G/E TW,  66% LW, and 57% LY

US WINTER WHEAT HEADED:     83% TW,  73% LW, 86% LY, and 83% AVG

IL WINTER WHEAT HEADED:    98% TW,  93% LW, 100% LY, and 95% AVG

US WINTER HARVESTED:     5% TW, NA% LW, 9% LY, and 4% AVG

IL WINTER HARVESTED:

US SPRING WHEAT PLANTED:   97% TW, 91% LW, 99% LY, and 94% AVG

US SPRING WHEAT EMERGED:   81% TW, 63% LW, 88% LY, and 82% AVG

SPRING WHEAT CONDITIONS:   70%G/E TW, NA LW, and 55% LY