COMMENTARY 6/30/17

Rain is IN the forecast…….

CORN

UP 11

Lots of new, news to digest!  It was first notice day for Jul futures, strong deliveries, and the report.  The report provided fresh surprises, like with acreage at 90.9 mill acres it came out 1 mill higher than expectations (instead of being lower at 89.7) and 890K higher than the March report. States with notable increases in corn acreage: N D at +400K, NE at +250K, IA at +200k. These increases were offset by states with decreases like IN at – 100K, IL at – 200K. Using a 170.7 bpa yield that would create a 14.252 bill bu crop.  Carry Out was 5.225 bill vs an avg est of 5.123.  Weather markets are next!  Good rains are forecast for the weekend.  IF <– we miss the rains the next 4 days, the paragraph below will carry more of your interest!

A look at the 30 day moisture graphic shows MOST of the Corn Belt in the Very Short rating.  A comparison of sub-soil moisture maps now in 2017 compared to 2012 is SPOOKILY similar.  Stop by and check out the graphs.

 

BEANS

UP 27

At one time july fut were  up thirty cents! The report had just minimal changes, but appears to have been the opposite of what the trade was positioned for. Acreage was at 89.5 mill acres, with 88.7 mil acres harvested. This would equate to 200k more harvested acres. Carry Out came in at 963 mill bu, 18 mill LESS than the avg guess.  The big thing is that the Funds are still short some 146k contracts, or 730 mill bu after their buying spree today.  July IS thought to be hotter so weekend rains will determine our next move.

 

WHEAT

UP 31

Some 51 cents higher for the week, HRW up 47 cents,  and HRS up $1.06!! Funds were adding to their long position and the Managed money is long is a record for this time of year in HRS. The USDA report had June 1 stocks for all wheat at 1,184 mill bu, vs the avg guess of 1,136. Winter wheat harvested acres were 25.8 million, 196,000 above the last USDA est. SD was down 130,000 but TX, OK, and CO were all higher. With reports of abandonment and haying of HRS acres, we may see that number erode even further.  Last year, harvested acres were 97.4% of the planted acres.  Can’t wait to see what Crop Conditions look like on Mon afternoon.