COMMENTARY 6/29/2017

N KS, N MO, E IA, NW IL, and WI got some mush needed accum.  SD got some slight sprinkles but after today its HOT/DRY!  Good rains are forecast with decent coverage of 1.5” to 3.5” of accum are expected for the majority of the Corn Belt.  The E Plains and Delta are expecting 1/2” to 1 1/2” of accum.

CORN

UP 3

Better, thanks to wheat and despite a rather icky export numbers.  Export Sales were disappointing at just 12.4 vs expectations of 14 -22 mill bu.  Tomorrow’s report is expected to show  C/O stocks to be around 5.125 in a 4.685-5.360 range.  IF <– we miss the rains in the forecast for the next 6 days, the paragraph below will carry more of your interest!

A look at the 30 day moisture graphic shows MOST of the Corn Belt in the Very Short rating.  A comparison of sub-soil moisture maps now in 2017 compared to 2012 is SPOOKILY similar.  Stop by and check out the graphs.

Monday’s Crop Progress:

US YC SILKING:   4%TW,  na% LW, 5% LY, and 5% AVG

IL YC SILKING:   2% TW, na% LW, 3% LY, and 6% AVG

US CONDITIONS:  67% G/E,  67% LW, and 75% LY

IL CONDITIONS: 62% G/E, 59% LW

BEANS

UP 2

The sheep (forecasters) are beginning to come out of the closet.  July is starting to look warmer and drier depending on when that dry ridge forms and sets up.  Export Sales were decent at 11.5 mill vs expectations of 7 -15.  Year to date New crop sales are ugly at 50% of normal, an eleven year low.

Crop Progress:

US YSB EMERGED:   94%TW,  89% LW,  94% LY, and 91% AVG

IL YSB EMERGED:   97% TW, 92% LW, 93% LY, and 93% AVG

US YSB BLOOMING: 9% TW,  na% LW, 8% LY, and 7% AVG

IL YSB BLOOMING:    7% TW, 1% LW, 6% LY, and 5% AVG

US CONDITIONS:  66% G/E,  67% LW, and 72% LY

IL CONDITIONS: 70% G/E, 67% LW

 

WHEAT

UP 23

Look at wheat go and our Chi wheat is bringing up the rear compares to MN and KC who were up some 40 some cents.  Rain in SD last night was to few and too spotty.  The crop size there IS shrinking.  Export Sales were towards the upper end at 18.1 mill vs expectations of 13-20 mill and just 14.7 needed per week from here on out. The big buyer was Mexico, then China, then Indonesia, Philippines, and Japan.

Crop Progress:

SPRING WHEAT CONDITIONS:    40 G/E% TW, 41% LW, 72% LY

US G/E CONDITIONS: 49% G/E, 49% LW, and 62% LY

IL WHEAT CONDITIONS: 64% G/E, 64% LW – a 0% increase

US WINTER WHEAT HARVESTED:   41% TW, 28% LW, 42% LY, and 39% AVG

IL WINTER WHEAT HARVESTED:    78% TW, 65% LW, 71% LY, and 47% AVG