COMMENTARY 6/28/18

The heat is HERE!!  The July temp outlook was a little bit BIGGER of a question until the market closed this afternoon.  Could be some WILD activity on tomorrow’s report being first notice day for July futures AND having the USDA report at the same time!

 CORN

DOWN 7

While too early to have a GOOD idea of what weather beyond next week should be like, some of the gov’t forecasts do NOT suggest prolonged heat and that’s key piece in order to reach full yield potential!  Tomorrow will be the big USDA ->survey based<- update on planted/harvested acreage.  In the past two years, most analysts under-predict the USDA by approx a percent. You can re-look at the market’s thoughts for tomorrow’s report by looking at COMMENTARY archives from earlier this week/last.  Export Sales today were decent at 33.5 mill vs expectations of 24 -39.

 

BEANS              

 

DOWN 6

Sell-off at the end of the day.  Tomorrow’s report at 11 am may show large stocks 700k acres.  Nothing tangibly new in the tariff situation, BUT it is rumored that the Chinese are going to open several markets up to foreign investment and their version of our stock market has been in recent significant drops and erosion.  There is also a rumor that China’s tariffs may exclude US beans.  At this point we believe China IS naked and uncovered for beans into O/N/D.  Export Sales today were 13.2 vs expectations of 11 – 22 mill.

 

 

WHEAT

DOWN 5

Funds were minor sellers of the Chic wheat today. Market chatter has higher than expected yields may have caused the weakness. drive the decline. Export Sales were HUGE!! -at 20.7 mill vs expectations of 9 -18. The weekly pace for USDA’s est is 15.2 per week. Big buyers were Mexico and S Korea, both buying 3 mill bu each.