COMMENTARY 6/27/18

The heat is arriving and the July temp outlook is a little bit BIGGER of a question mark.

 CORN

UNCHANGED

Better to start the am but DID finish flat.  Things got weaker, bid-wise, the farther you get from nearby, into next year.  Firmness today was in part to the fact that the US regulations on technology advancement by Chinese companies are less restrictive than initially thought. US weather into July is being looked at hard with pondering.  Friday is when the REAL hot temps arrive with the chance of some additional spot showers.  At this point, the heat isn’t THOUGHT to last more than a handful of days – but IS expected to re-return. Dryness in the Black Sea Region is also in the back of the market’s mind.

 

Mon’s Crop Progress:

US YC CONDITIONS:  77% G/E, 78% LW, and 67% LY

IL YC CONDITIONS:    83% G/E,   81% LW,  62% LY

US SILKING:   5% TW,  na % LW, 4% LY, and 3% AVG

IL SILKING:   2% TW,  0% LW, 2% LY, and 1% AVG

 

BEANS              

UNCHANGED

The bulls continue to be disappointed as futures struggled to hold the gains they had made overnight and 10 cents below their highs.  China trade tensions continue to be an issue regarding prices until the market is able to get some sort of confidence that there IS desire from either side to negotiate.   CASS,  China’s Academy of Ag Science claims to have come up with a strategy to supplement their protein origins and –> est that our US Ag exports will drop 25% from 2020-2035 if their proposed strategy is successful. Reportedly, there are some 68 countries have reportedly joined this line of thinking. In SA, Agroconsult believes Brazil’s export forecast COULD top 73.5 MMT,  –>IF the Chinese tariffs duties on US beans lasts beyond July 6.

Crop Progress:

US YSB EMERGED:   95% TW,  90% LW, 93% LY, and 89% AVG

IL YSB EMERGED:   97% TW,  93% LW, 96% LY, and 92% AVG

US YSB BLOOMING:   12% TW,  na % LW, 8% LY, and 5% AVG

IL YSB BLOOMING:   23% TW,  3% LW, 6% LY, and 3% AVG

US YC CONDITIONS:  73% G/E, 73% LW, and 66% LY

IL YC CONDITIONS:    78% G/E,   77% LW,  and 70% LY

 

WHEAT

UP 10

Higher once again on world weather concerns, especially the dryness in Russia and W Ukraine.  Canada’s crop progress report is showing crops advancing quickly and dryness continues.  Australia, however IS expecting some much needed showers today.  S Korea released their GMO halt on Canada after further testing failed to find additional GMO contamination. concluded there was no GMO found in samples.  We are still about a week away from significant harvest in the NE Corn Belt and there is still concern with quality in the Delta and Mid S.

Crop Progress:

US WINTER WHEAT CONDITIONS:   37% G/E TW,  39% LW, and 49% LY

IL WINTER WHEAT CONDITIONS:    53% G/E TW,  58% LW, and 64% LY

US WINTER HARVESTED:     41% TW, 27% LW, 39% LY, and 33% AVG

IL WINTER HARVESTED:     66% TW, 30% LW, 76% LY, and 41% AVG

US SPRING WHEAT HEADED:   34% TW, 9% LW, 33% LY, and 27% AVG

SPRING WHEAT CONDITIONS:   77%G/E TW, 78% LW, and 40% LY