COMMENTARY 6/27/17

Dry and Cool/wet  air masses battle it out for the Midwest this week.

CORN

UNCHANGED

Yesterday’s Crop Ratings didn’t improve as much as the market expected. The NW belt, as well as some states in the E (IN) are rated below that of last year’s with some as much as 25-27 lower!  See actuals below.  Some weather models expect July to be warmer and drier especially into the second and third weeks (when the majority of our later planted and replanted plants pollinate).  A look at the 30 day moisture graphic shows MOST of the Corn Belt in the Very Short rating.  A comparison of sub-soil moisture maps now in 2017 compared to 2012 is SPOOKILY similar.  Stop by and check out the graphs.  In SA, the safinha crop in Brazil is 9% complete, which is about 4 less than this time last year.  Yesterday’s Export Inspections were 38 mill vs expectations of 35-43with 35 per week now needed. Some 16 mill went to Mexico.This Fri is the USDA report on acreage.  Acres are expected to be relatively unchanged.

Yesterday’s Crop Progress:

US YC SILKING:   4%TW,  na% LW, 5% LY, and 5% AVG

IL YC SILKING:   2% TW, na% LW, 3% LY, and 6% AVG

US CONDITIONS:  67% G/E,  67% LW, and 75% LY

IL CONDITIONS: 62% G/E, 59% LW

BEANS

UP 4

More short covering (buying).  Yesterday’s crop ratings didn’t improve like anticipated at just 66% G/E, a 1 point drop from last week and four less than last year. See actuals below.  Fri the cat will be out of the bag as far as how many additional acres are REALLY out there.  If conditions don’t improve, more acres may not be as devastating as some are expecting.  Yesterday, Monday’s Inspections were 11.6 vs expectations of 7-16 with 13.1 needed per week from here on out.

Crop Progress:

US YSB EMERGED:   94%TW,  89% LW,  94% LY, and 91% AVG

IL YSB EMERGED:   97% TW, 92% LW, 93% LY, and 93% AVG

US YSB BLOOMING: 9% TW,  na% LW, 8% LY, and 7% AVG

IL YSB BLOOMING:    7% TW, 1% LW, 6% LY, and 5% AVG

US CONDITIONS:  66% G/E,  67% LW, and 72% LY

IL CONDITIONS: 70% G/E, 67% LW

 

WHEAT

UP 3

Spring wheat remains a concern as ratings declined again yesterday afternoon.  The dry areas continue to stay dry at least into the weekend. Winter wheat conditions were unchanged at 49% G/E and compared to 62% last year.  Argentina’s Central and SE  states are expected to receive up to 4” of accum which could cause damage to the wheat in those areas!

Crop Progress:

SPRING WHEAT CONDITIONS:    40 G/E% TW, 41% LW, 72% LY

US G/E CONDITIONS: 49% G/E, 49% LW, and 62% LY

IL WHEAT CONDITIONS: 64% G/E, 64% LW – a 0% increase

US WINTER WHEAT HARVESTED:   41% TW, 28% LW, 42% LY, and 39% AVG

IL WINTER WHEAT HARVESTED:    78% TW, 65% LW, 71% LY, and 47% AVG