COMMENTARY 6/25/18

KS and OK saw more rain yesterday.  More scattered showers for the Corn Belt and the farther we get into the week, the hotter it gets.

 

 CORN

DOWN 7

Funds sold some 17,000 contracts today.  The effects of a trade hit closer to home as our biggest pork consume ponders getting its bacon from the EU.  The market’s re-adjustment to the Mexican tariffs is said to be partially responsible for the USDA anticipating an almost 20% decline in the avg hog price in the third/fourth quarter.  The GOOD news is that Export Inspections were firm at 59.5 vs expectations of 43-67 mill bu.  The big takers were S Korea, Mexico, Africa, and others in the W hemisphere. versus the 55.5 trade midpoint and 43-67 mbu range.  From here on our we need to continue using up around 56 mill per week. Also in good news, we are some 260 GDD’s ahead of normal for the major yc states.  Friday’s report is thought to see Prod’s avg guess around 5.276 bill bu in a 5.0-5.5 range.  Crop Conditions were approx. as expected and STILL in significantly better condition 10+% better than last year.  See actuals below.

Crop Progress:

US YC CONDITIONS:  77% G/E, 78% LW, and 67% LY

IL YC CONDITIONS:    83% G/E,   81% LW,  62% LY

US SILKING:   5% TW,  na % LW, 4% LY, and 3% AVG

IL SILKING:   2% TW,  0% LW, 2% LY, and 1% AVG

 

BEANS              

DOWN 20

Still not found any friends when unfair trade issues are violation our well-being.  Export Inspections were low to mid range at 18.9 vs expectations of 15-29 and 27 per week needed.  Still no loadouts by China which continues to be the big question as our 2.060 bill bu export forecast is dependent on China (or someone else taking them for her) taking almost 50 mill per mo through the end of the year. That being said, the USDA did announce this am that Unknown did buy 186k MT here in 17/18.  Also along this note, just because China doesn’t APPEAR to be buying US beans, DOESN’T mean that she isn’t buying them second hand from another country.  If a country in better standings (tariff-wise) with the US buys our beans, then sells them to China (sneaky!) then they have in turn bought US beans WITHOUT suffering from the imposed tariffs.  Think on that one.  They still need beans.  Cracking down on the Chinese theft of US intellectual property are paramount going forward and limiting businesses with 25% Chinese ownership, especially with the use of emergency laws.  Said laws would be additionally disruptive.  Chinese investments in the US has dropped significantly in the last several months and their equivalent of our stock market has been suffering as well.  The USDA report on Fri is expected to show an increase in planted acres of 700 K to 89.68 mill acres in a 89.1-90.6. This compares to last year’s 90.14 mill acres.  Stocks are thought to be 1.2 bill in a 965 million to 1.3 bill bu range. (that’d be up almost 25% from last year) Woo-doggies!  Crop Conditions still WAY better than what we’re used to.  See below!

 Crop Progress:

US YSB EMERGED:   95% TW,  90% LW, 93% LY, and 89% AVG

IL YSB EMERGED:   97% TW,  93% LW, 96% LY, and 92% AVG

US YSB BLOOMING:   12% TW,  na % LW, 8% LY, and 5% AVG

IL YSB BLOOMING:   23% TW,  3% LW, 6% LY, and 3% AVG

US YC CONDITIONS:  73% G/E, 73% LW, and 66% LY

IL YC CONDITIONS:    78% G/E,   77% LW,  and 70% LY

 

WHEAT

DOWN 14

Trade war and harvest pressure expected in the Plains.  Crop Conditions showing mixed results with spring wheat looking better and soft wheat harvest ahead of normal, but soft wheat conditions continue to disappoint.  Export Inspections this am were in range but to the low end at 13 mill vs expectations of 11 – 18 and 18 still needed per week.  Fri’s report is expected to see acres drop 190k (180 is spring) to 47.15 mill.

 Crop Progress:

US WINTER WHEAT CONDITIONS:   37% G/E TW,  39% LW, and 49% LY

IL WINTER WHEAT CONDITIONS:    53% G/E TW,  58% LW, and 64% LY

US WINTER HARVESTED:     41% TW, 27% LW, 39% LY, and 33% AVG

IL WINTER HARVESTED:     66% TW, 30% LW, 76% LY, and 41% AVG

 

US SPRING WHEAT HEADED:   34% TW, 9% LW, 33% LY, and 27% AVG

SPRING WHEAT CONDITIONS:   77%G/E TW, 78% LW, and 40% LY