COMMENTARY 6/25/14

COMMENTARY

WHEAT

UP 4

Quality concerns ARE NOW UPON US!    HIGHER levels of Vomitoxin are being seen in fields that were NOT treated with Fungicide.  Initially, TW are 58 – 60.  As harvest creeps forward, additional rain WILL deteriorate the TW and quality once ripe and warm humid conditions will encourage additional fungal activity.  Significant amounts of damage are being seen, especially in extreme Southern IL.  This week’s conditions are PERFECT for fungal activity, creating scab, shrinking wheat berries, and causing VOMI levels to increaseVomi discounts have soared over the last few day as the markets digest the effects of FEED GRADE quality wheat.  IT IS ADVISABLE TO CUT WHEAT WETTER THAN NORMAL AND DRY IT TO INTERRUPT FUNGAL ACTIVITY.

Funds are NOW SHORT some -108million bu of wheat.   Early yield reports form the Plains are low as expected.  Harvest ramps up.  Yields locally are hearty, but so are the discounts for Vomitoxin.  HRS conditions dropped 9% in MN due to excessive rains with national ratings dropping 1 to 71% G/E.  Harvest is moving along at 33% vs. 31% AVG with (TX 69%, OK 74%, KS 24%).  Scattered storms this week will further degrade quality and increase discounts.

Winter Wheat conditions are  30% G/E THIS WEEK, 30% LW, and 32% LY.  Conditions for the State of IL are 59% G/E THIS WEEK and 59% LW.  KS G/E is a mere 11%, OK G/E is only 5%, and TX G/E is 15%.  Winter heat HARVESTED is 33% This Week, 16% LW, 19% LY, and 31% AVG

WE STRONGLY RECOMMEND that producers verify that their seed varieties ARE approved for MAJOR EXPORT MARKETS.  The STL River markets ARE planning to test loads delivered.  They RESERVE the right to reject loads with unapproved traits.  If you have seed that is NOT APPROVED FOR MAJOR EXPORT MARKETS, we encourage you to check with your seed representative to see that it IS APPROVED for GLOBAL USE.

 

 

 

BEANS

OLD UP 2      NEW UP 4

Funds are still LONG some +382 mill bu of YSB (that means a large amount of selling would likely pressure the Board.  Favorable growing conditions in th eUS coupled with a slow start to Indian monsoon season

US Planting Progress is 95% THIS WEEK, 92%LW, 91% LY, and 904% AVG.  Planting progress for The State of IL was 96% THIS WEEK, 94% LW, 95% LY, and 93% AVG.  US EMERGENCE was 890% THIS WEEK, 83% LW, 79% LY, and 87% AVG.  Emergence for the State of IL was 93% THIS WEEK, 89% LW, 84% LY, and 8% AVG.  US CROP CONDITIONS are 72 % G/E, 73% LW, and65%LY. The State of IL was 73% G/E THIS WEEK and 72%LW.

CORN                      

DOWN 2

St Louis river levels rising  at +22.9 ft today and forecast to be 25.2 by 6/30.  Flooding and high water in Iowa causes delays in loading of Northern corn barges.  That means more demand for STL barges that are 3 – 5 days CLOSER to the Gulf for off loading onto export vessels.

Funds are still LONG some 738 mill bu of corn.  “RAIN MAKES GRAIN”.  The two week weather outlook appears supportive for developing corn plants.  Light showers around the Lakes overnight with today and tomorrow looking dry.  Seasonable to slightly-mild temperatures are the focus the next 10-14 days.  High temps will be mostly west of the major producing areas and is not expected to move east as t-storms develop and cool fronts drop southward.  This setup should result in widespread rains into next week, although dry spells will persist a little longer.  A warmer pattern likely follows for the second week of July, but t-storms will again reoccur to prevent the development of a persistent period of heat. Expect near to-above average moisture amounts the next week.  China has begun building bins as they are selling Reserves at a value of $9.19 per bu.  That is a great way to get folks to build bins to increase storage holding capacity to an additional 50 million bu of space.

MODAY’s Nationwide Crop Rating  SLIPPED 2%  at 74% G/E vs 76% LW and 65% LY.  The State of IL  INCREASED 2% at 78% G/E vs 76% LW.

BUNGE will not accept delivery of produced from the following seed:

CORN: Agrisure Viptera MIR 162 (Syngenta), Bayer/Genective -Event VCO-01981-5, Agrisure Duracade – Event 5307 (Syngenta), Stine Maize – Event HCEM485, DuPont/Pioneer – Event 4114-3, Monsanto – MON 87427

SOYBEAN: Vistive Gold – MON 87705 (Monsanto), Soymega – MON 87769 (Monsanto), Plenish (DuPont/Pioneer), Bayer – Event FG72

 WHAT YOU SHOULD KNOW: 

China’s rejections of a banned variety of genetically modified U.S. corn have now cost the U.S. agriculture industry up to $2.9 billion, a grain group said, on losses from trade disruptions. The National Grain and Feed Association (NGFA) estimated in a report, that rejections of shipments containing Syngenta AG’s Agrisure Viptera corn resulted in losses of at least $1 billion.  This is based on economic analysis that included data supplied by top global grain exporters. The largest estimates of losses are based on the loss in corn price, which  translated to producer losses. – JSA

 SPECIALTY CORN GROWERS:

Ask your seed company what/how they are testing the NGMO purity on the seed you planted.  Ensure what they sold you IS pure (by lab testing your seed) BEFORE planting .  There are contaminated seed issues out there.