COMMENTARY 6/22/2017

CORN

DOWN 6

Fund selling and pressure again from our non-threatening forecast.  Funds were sellers again today of some 13 k contracts. Cool temps, so far, have negated concern over our lack of subsoil moisture. We still need timely and consistent rains through the HOT, dog days of July and as we get into Aug!   Thursday’s Export Sales were under par at 20.8 mill bu vs expectations of 22 -30 mill.  SA’s big crop continues to weigh on export demand.  A look at a 30 day moisture graph shows MOST of the Corn Belt in the Very Short rating.  A comparison of sub-soil moisture maps now in 2017 compared to 2012 is SPOOKILY similar.  Stop by and check out the graphs.  Next Fri 6/30 is the next USDA report on acreage.  Corn acres are expected to be unchanged while beans may increase slightly.

Crop Progress:

US YC EMERGED:   98%TW,  94% LW, 959 LY, and 98% AVG

IL YC EMERGED:   100% TW, 96% LW, 100% LY, and 99% AVG

US CONDITIONS:  67% G/E,  67% LW, and 75% LY

IL CONDITIONS: 59% G/E, 58% LW

BEANS

DOWN 14

More Fund selling and the 15 day forecast is cool with chances of rain for most of the Midwest. Export Sales were below expectations at 4.1 mill and that’s not much compared to the expected 7 -15 mill.  Do poor new crop sales mean more of our old crop bushels will be carried over into new crop? China has been fairly active this week, but Brazil has been soaking them up and for August deliv.  US beans WERE more competitive into China for Aug, but farmer movement in Brazil has increased some now that the Real is trading over 3.3 compared to our US dollar.

Crop Progress:

US YSB PLANTED: 96% TW, 92% LW, 95% LY, and 93% AVG

IL YSB PLANTED:    97% TW, 93% LW, 95% LY, and 94% AVG

US YSB EMERGED:   89%TW,  77% LW,  88% LY, and 84% AVG

IL YSB EMERGED:   92% TW, 78% LW, 87% LY, and 87% AVG

US CONDITIONS:  67% G/E,  66% LW, and 73% LY

IL CONDITIONS: 67% G/E, 66% LW

WHEAT

DOWN 3

Harvest in the N is moving along and we are NOT seeing much improvement in the HRW protein levels. Export Sales were above thoughts of 11 -18 mill at 19.9.  Harvest locally will be all but done this evening barring a rain squall of a breakdown!  Get those double crop beans socked in!

Crop Progress:

SPRING WHEAT CONDITIONS:    43 G/E% TW, 45% LW, 76% LY

US WINTER WHEAT HEADED:   97% TW, 92% LW, 99% LY, and 95% AVG

IL WINTER WHEAT HEADED:    100% TW, 100% LW, 100% LY, and 100% AVG

US G/E CONDITIONS: 49% G/E, 50% LW, and 61% LY

IL WHEAT CONDITIONS: 64% G/E, 64% LW – a 0% increase

US WINTER WHEAT HARVESTED:   28% TW, 17% LW, 23% LY, and 25% AVG

IL WINTER WHEAT HARVESTED:    65% TW, 24% LW, 33% LY, and 24% AVG