COMMENTARY 6/21/17

CORN

DOWN 1

Your Funds were sellers of an est 6,000 contracts today.  Weather models are increasing moisture chances and reducing temps especially several weeks out.  Overall,  the forecast looks good as corn nears pollination. In SA, the Argentine government has ordered their striking longshoremen to suspend the stoppage for 15 days to restart shipments.   Cif values at the Gulf are weaker as US corn is becoming more expensive than some of our export competitors.   A reason to be bullish??  –> A look at a 30 day moisture graph shows MOST of the Corn Belt in the Very Short rating.  A comparison of soil moisture maps now in 2017 compared to 2012 is SPOOKILY similar.  We have said graphs here at the office if you would like to view!  It is certainly something to think about.

Planting Progress:

US YC EMERGED:   98%TW,  94% LW, 959 LY, and 98% AVG

IL YC EMERGED:   100% TW, 96% LW, 100% LY, and 99% AVG

US CONDITIONS:  67% G/E,  67% LW, and 75% LY

IL CONDITIONS: 59% G/E, 58% LW

BEANS

DOWN 9

Quiet and today’s weakness is being blamed on favorable weather and technical selling.  Most all bean futures months are now within 5-10 cents of 2017’s lows.  Funds sold an est  9,000 contracts of beans, 3,500 meal, and  3,000 oil. Also, the US dollar was down 200 points but it wasn’t enough to add any meaningful support. Weather appears  friendly for crop development the next week and showers are expected this weekend. There are rumors that China may be buying from Brazil and could also be creating pressure. We still have a lot of unshipped sales that some are concerned may get cancelled or rolled into the next crop year.  It all depends on Chinese demand!

Crop Progress:

US YSB PLANTED: 96% TW, 92% LW, 95% LY, and 93% AVG

IL YSB PLANTED:    97% TW, 93% LW, 95% LY, and 94% AVG

US YSB EMERGED:   89%TW,  77% LW,  88% LY, and 84% AVG

IL YSB EMERGED:   92% TW, 78% LW, 87% LY, and 87% AVG

US CONDITIONS:  67% G/E,  66% LW, and 73% LY

IL CONDITIONS: 67% G/E, 66% LW

WHEAT

DOWN 8

A little moderation in temps apparently lent itself to an easier board today.  Spring wheat belt losses will be cussed and discussed until we get physical bu’s cut.  Most of the time, once panic sets in, it goes too far, but until we see something tangible……   The world market is full of wheat and though the US spring wheat is suffering, Canada’s crop looks good as well as tours through Russia reporting better than expected yields.

Progress:

SPRING WHEAT CONDITIONS:    43 G/E% TW, 45% LW, 76% LY

US WINTER WHEAT HEADED:   97% TW, 92% LW, 99% LY, and 95% AVG

IL WINTER WHEAT HEADED:    100% TW, 100% LW, 100% LY, and 100% AVG

US G/E CONDITIONS: 49% G/E, 50% LW, and 61% LY

IL WHEAT CONDITIONS: 64% G/E, 64% LW – a 0% increase

US WINTER WHEAT HARVESTED:   28% TW, 17% LW, 23% LY, and 25% AVG

IL WINTER WHEAT HARVESTED:    65% TW, 24% LW, 33% LY, and 24% AVG